Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado has claimed to have enough voting records to prove that the opposition candidate Edmundo González won the election in Venezuela and that the victory claimed by Nicolás Maduro is fraudulent: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-29/venezuela-s-machado-says-opposition-has-enough-proof-of-fraud
Machado has made the claimed results available online at: https://resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com/
This market aims to predict whether the Maduro government will produce its own, contradicting set of voting records, supporting Maduro's claimed 51% win.
The produced records need not be proven to be legitimate within the given timeframe, as the legitimacy of any records will likely be a matter of significant contention. It is, however, required that the produced records are consistent with the win claimed by Maduro and that they are sufficiently believable for international observers to consider it a legitimate topic of discussion by the international community whether Maduro really won (i.e. if Maduro just produces obviously fraudulent records, this will resolve NO).
I will hold off on resolving this market if there is significant disagreement over whether the voting records produced by the government, in case they are produced at all, are obviously fraudulent or not.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/04/maduro-gonzalez-election-actas-analysis/
Consensus around Maduro having lost to Gonzalez seems to be strengthening.
You can see that a lot of replies from Venezuelans are asking"what about the voting records?" https://x.com/cotizcesar/status/1819768209358094737
Maduro is now claiming he is unable to release the reports because the CNE is being attacked by computer hackers hired by Elon Musk.
No, I am not joking.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240731-venezuela-s-maduro-elon-musk-battle-it-out-online
It is, however, required that the produced records are consistent with the 51% win claimed by Maduro, or a Maduro win in general. They should also be believable enough that there is a plausible argument that Maduro might have really won.
i.e. if Maduro's government just comes up with some set of obviously fake documents that are immediately dismissed by international observers as being fake, that will not cause a YES resolution.
I will wait for some time after the records are produced (in case they are) to determine whether this criterion has been fulfilled.
How can any records be legitimate if they disagree with the precinct reports citizens have been collecting, digitizing and publishing, especially considering these are already online? Maduro couldn't fake credible numbers to claim his victory; the vote shares were exactly 51.20000% to 44.20000%, which is just ridiculous. But if you give him a month, he can have people produce fake numbers that are at least internally consistent. And he has the means to make them official-looking.
I'm not sure what this market is about, exactly.
This market is about whether Maduro will try to produce his own precinct reports which aren't immediately recognizable as forgeries. Yes, he can make them look official, but will he?
He first claimed that he would do it "soon", but now he's saying the CNE is being attacked by Elon Musk (no, I am not shitting you) and that for that reason he is unable to release the reports: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240731-venezuela-s-maduro-elon-musk-battle-it-out-online
It's also not as simple as Maduro just producing official-looking fake numbers - they need to match up with Machado's reports - which have been recognized to be legitimate - without being immediately and obviously fake. Hence why Maduro is trying to buy time by saying stupid shit, he probably has people working full time on the problem of how to make reports that need to be pretty much 100% Maduro votes look plausible.
Maduro controls the CNE, they'll say anything he wants.
What's your source for saying the civil society's reports have been recognized to be legitimate? I mean, they are, but Maduro cannot admit that without conceding the election. Other countries might recognize that, but this doesn't really matter much. Still, I'm curious about it because it could cause me to update about the whole situation.
As for the real reports posted online, each of them has not only the number of votes, but physical signatures of precinct officials, witnesses, and (IIUC) the technician involved in generating them. They have a QR code containing the same data. They have a hash of the data, which probably relates to some preregistered validation scheme.
The civil society has collected more than 80% of the reports, and they give González a 37-point lead. There are probably not enough votes left to reverse this even if Maduro claims 100% of the vote *and* 100% turnout in every precinct the civil society hasn't digitized yet.
I do see ways he could publish results. I don't see how he can publish results "which aren't immediately recognizable as forgeries".
Re: Them being legitimate, I'm mostly talking about other countries. I think a different way to put this market would be "will there be any contention, based on conflicting accounts of votes, about whether Maduro really won the election or not?"
Perhaps that would be a better title, but I'm not able to edit.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/07/30/maduro-tells-brazil-hell-release-venezuela-ballot-records-in-coming-days/
Maduro has claimed he will do so soon