Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Nicolás Maduro remains in office as Venezuela's president on December 31, 2025. Resolution will be determined by checking whether Maduro holds the presidency on that date according to major international news sources and official Venezuelan government records. The market resolves NO if Maduro is removed from office, dies, or voluntarily leaves the presidency before the end of 2025.

Background

Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term following a contentious July 2024 election where his opponent Edmundo González claimed voter fraud and declared victory. The opposition published voting tallies claiming González won with 67% against Maduro's 30%, and independent observers including the Carter Center and Colombian Electoral Mission found the opposition tallies to be legitimate. More than 50 countries, including the United States, have refused to recognize Maduro as Venezuela's head of state.

The Trump administration has revived its "maximum pressure" campaign against Venezuela, and in August 2025 signed a secret directive authorizing the Pentagon to use military force against select Latin American drug cartels, while doubling the U.S. bounty on Maduro to $50 million. The United States deployed a fleet of naval warships carrying more than 4,500 sailors and Marines toward Venezuelan waters.

Considerations

The expectation that U.S. military displays will trigger Venezuela's political transformation may underestimate chavismo's grip on power; the bonds between civilian authorities and the military are cemented in part by illicit economy profits, and the armed forces were restructured to "coup proof" them through fragmented command and control. Maduro's government has faced similar pressures over the past decade and managed to recover through backing from non-Western states including Russia, China, Cuba, and Turkey.