If there IS a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia AT ANY POINT between now and March 2023, this market resolves N/A at that time.
Otherwise, resolves to the same as https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5, whenever that does resolve.
"Peace deal" is a bit vague, but I'll try to keep it consistent with definitions used in other markets, esp https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-there-be-a-peace-agreement-in. Worst case I'll use a market to see if a peace deal has been reached, though I expect it will be clearer than that.
Paired market with https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/given-a-peace-deal-between-ukraine, in response to Robin Hanson's suggestion at https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1575642774384578560
Sep 29, 8:01pm: Clarified what happens if there's a deal that later falls through: as soon as there's any deal for any length of time, this market will N/A and the other market will go forward.
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looks like NO but I’ll wait for https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5 as stated in the description.
Updating against https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022
They give 16% in the unconditional case, and I expect this market should trade a bit higher.
(HT @EliLifland & friends)
Selling a bit to rationalize with https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5