Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?
Given NO peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before the end of February 2023, will nuclear weapons be launched in combat before the end of 2023?
resolved by
24
820Ṁ7157
resolved Jan 15
Resolved
NO

If there IS a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia AT ANY POINT between now and March 2023, this market resolves N/A at that time.

Otherwise, resolves to the same as https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-015e44ed91f5, whenever that does resolve.

"Peace deal" is a bit vague, but I'll try to keep it consistent with definitions used in other markets, esp https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-there-be-a-peace-agreement-in. Worst case I'll use a market to see if a peace deal has been reached, though I expect it will be clearer than that.

Paired market with https://manifold.markets/citrinitas/given-a-peace-deal-between-ukraine, in response to Robin Hanson's suggestion at https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1575642774384578560

Sep 29, 8:01pm: Clarified what happens if there's a deal that later falls through: as soon as there's any deal for any length of time, this market will N/A and the other market will go forward.

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