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MANIFOLD
Will SpaceX attempt to employ hot staging in the next Starship–Superheavy flight test?
10
Ṁ190Ṁ42k
resolved Nov 18
Resolved
YES

SpaceX are working on modifications to Starship–Superheavy staging. Musk says they are moving towards a "hot staging" scheme in which the ship will light its engines whilst still attached to the booster.

Will SpaceX (attempt to) employ this staging method in the next Starship–Superheavy launch attempt, after market creation?

This market will resolve YES if SpaceX puts up a live stream for a Starship–Superheavy flight test intended to undergo stage separation, and the launch either gets as far as actually making use of hot staging, or if the attempt does not make it that far, it is reliably reported (e.g. by Musk or SpaceX) that the intent was to use hot staging.

It will resolve NO if such a live stream is put up, but is for a flight that either doesn't make use of hot staging, or if it doesn't make it that far, it is reliably reported that the intent was not to use hot staging.

The vehicle does not need to lift off for it to count as an attempt. They just need to be serious enough about making an attempt to have put up a live stream. A scrub still counts as long as the live stream went up.

Market will remain open until the next such launch attempt or resolve N/A if it looks like Starship development is abandoned. It will resolve N/A if the next flight attempt takes place and it is not reasonably able to be determined whether the intent was to use hot staging.

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@chrisjbillington Resolves Yes.