If it launches, resolves YES. If it scrubs or explodes on the pad, resolves NO.
"Attempt" is defined as SpaceX being serious enough about the launch to go live on an official live stream of the launch. This means the actual broadcast going live and displaying a countdown (ticking or otherwise), and not just showing a waiting screen or other filler content.
"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.
If the vehicle explodes and it cannot be reasonably determined whether it was before or after "launch" by this definition, the market resolves N/A.
Market remains open until the next launch attempt of a Starship–Superheavy launch vehicle, or resolves N/A if the development of Starship is abandoned.
I reserve the right to adjust these definitions, within reason, to preserve the spirit of the market in the case that important assumptions in writing them prove to be invalid.
1,000
3.00@dp9000 No, not unless they keep the live stream running. That should be impossible though, as a delay of more than I think something like ten or fifteen minutes after propellant load will mean a scrub and a 48h turnaround to detank and retank.