Will there be two SpaceX Starship–SuperHeavy launches within a single 30 day period in 2024?

Question

"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.

Only launches planned to be orbital or near-orbital (intended to come within ~5% of orbital velocity) count.

"Within a single 30 day period" means that the time in between launches is not greater than 30 ordinary 24-hour days, i.e. 2,592,000 seconds.

Both launches must occur in 2024, local time at their respective launch sites.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 2, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.