If the NYT mentions Manifold, will it [mention the market on whether the NYT will] [×N] mention Manifold?
If the NYT mentions Manifold, will it [mention the market on whether the NYT will] [×N] mention Manifold?
25
3.5kṀ45k
resolved Oct 8
100%99.8%
0
0.1%
1
0.0%
2
0.0%
3
0.0%
4
0.0%
ambiguous
0.0%
0.0%Other

Resolves to the largest N satisfied by statements in whatever publication triggers a YES resolution of @jack's market, or N/A if that market resolves NO:

/jack/will-nyt-publish-an-article-mention


E.g:

  • If the NYT doesn't mention any of the meta markets on whether the NYT will mention Manifold, and doesn't mention the markets on whether the NYT will mention those markets, and so on, then N=0.

  • If the NYT mentions @jack's market or another market with similar resolution criteria, or the general fact that Manifold contains markets on whether the NYT will mention Manifold, then N=1.

  • If the NYT mentions that Manifold has markets on whether it will mention such markets, i.e. if it references @DanMan314's market:

    /DanMan314/if-the-nyt-publishes-an-article-men


    Or if the NYT otherwise articulates that Manifolders are betting on this possibility (e.g. that they are betting on Dan's market, or on the N=1 case of this market), then N=2.

  • If it concocts some statement to the effect that Manifolders are betting on the N=2 case, then N=3, and so on.

  • If the NYT leaves it ambiguous how many layers of meta this goes to, e.g. "and Manifold has markets on whether we will mention those markets, and so on and so forth", then N="ambiguous"

  • If it successfully makes a statement that spells out Manifolders are betting on the value of N generally, and that it does actually go to infinity (e.g the above but "and so on, to arbitrarily high N", or "and so on, ad infinitum"), then N = ∞.

Clarification added Oct 6th PST: As with @DanMan314's market, "mention" will be interpreted broadly:

  • A link to or screenshot of one of these markets, or a screenshot of any part of the Manifold site with one of these markets present in a card or portfolio or anything will count.

  • A link to or screenshot of a comment thread or discord channel from which one can discern the existence of these markets will count.

  • A link to Manifold (or elsewhere) which only happens to currently contain a link to or other reference to one of these markets (e.g. because it's trending, or in a specific users' portfolio) won't count.

  • A link to Manifold (or elsewhere) where the appearance of one or more of these markets is more than incidental (such as a link to a dashboard someone made that is specific to these markets) such that one would reasonably expect them to still be present if the link were clicked e.g. a month from now will count.

I will not resolve inconsistently with either @jack or @DanMan314's markets, provided they resolve consistently with each other, and this requirement trumps all others if in conflict. I will not resolve this market until both of them have resolved.

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