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Sam Altman appears to be returning as CEO to OpenAI, so I've remade this question for those interested:

what if they bring him back?

https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo

@VictorLJZ he nonetheless ceased

Sam Altman has ceased to be CEO effective "immediately," according to a statement by OpenAI. NYT and BBC say Altman has been "pushed out" and "ousted." Wikipedia's page on Sam Altman refers to his being CEO of OpenAI in the past tense. Resolving this question YES.

Another important market

Congratulations to everyone who tossed a "yes" on this for whatever reason and is swimming in mana right now.

@TheOtherKC I mean, the probability was never very low. You'd only 2-3x your investment.

@TheOtherKC Six+ years as CEO in an extremely high-volatility industry just seemed too unlikely! Plus you could expect the “No” stock to rise whenever Sam did anything like “show a lot of interest in a new potential business venture”.

Related market

https://manifold.markets/EliLifland/who-will-be-the-next-permanent-ceo

wtf...

https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition

> Chief technology officer Mira Murati appointed interim CEO to lead OpenAI; Sam Altman departs the company.

@ICRainbow I saw that, immediately went to manifold to find a market on this, misread the title (sign error), and bet all my mana on "NO", lol 😭

OpenAI is still a platform that is growing. Sam doesn't seem to be very focused on other projects rather than being honed in this prestigious position.

Isn't his sister claiming he raped her as a kid and then conspired with the mother to steal her share of the family fortune? Probably not enough to get him fired tho?

Anyone want to share their analysis?

@calderknight Sam believes AGI is the most important technology in the world, it seems plausible to me that he's right, I can't imagine another project somehow grabbing his interest any more. The only reasons I can think of for why he wouldn't be the CEO are scandal, or that the company out-scales his own business expertise (but that would be an atypical reason for a founder to exit).

you fear: “power or control seeking models”

you should fear: “seeking power to control models”