Who will be the next permanent CEO of OpenAI?
745
24kṀ800k
resolved Nov 30
100%99.0%
Sam Altman
0.1%
Mira Murati
0.0%
Elon Musk
0.0%
Adam D'angelo
0.0%
Ilya sutskevar - [Edit: MIspelled, Resolves NO]
0.0%
Greg Brockman
0.0%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
0.0%
Tasha McCauley
0.0%
Helen Toner
0.0%
Jan Leike
0.0%
Nick Ryder
0.0%
Nat Friedman
0.0%
None - position will cease to exist
0.0%
Paul Christiano
0.0%
Eric Schmidt
0.0%
Demis Hassabis
0.0%
GPT-5
0.0%
Patrick Collison
0.0%
Linda Yaccarino
0.0%
Daniel Gross

After Sam Altman. https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition. Resolves based on whoever is announced as permanent, non-interim CEO

The misspelled Ilya answer will be resolved to NO. I have attempted to refund people who were hurt by the policy changing, but I only did this to a first approximation. Lmk if you deserve more of a refund.

Edits below:

I’ve had admins changed this market so only I can add answers to try to keep the market speedy and reduce the chance we get to the max 100 before all candidates have been revealed. If a candidate is announced as permanent suddenly and other shoots to 100 I will just resolve to Other to avoid annoying yes splitting. Ping me here if you have people you want to add (or PM me). I’ll try to check at least every few hours when I’m not sleeping.

Clarification: If openai ceases to exist (e.g. is shut down, or merged/acquired by another company and dismantled or changed into another team, unlike e.g. LinkedIn which still operates independently as a subsidiary) it resolves to none. There’s I guess an edge case where it is merged with another company to create a new one and it’s not clear which company was merged into the other, but I think it would probably make sense to still resolve none

Tentative clarifications about which entity the person has to be CEO of:
It is just the nonprofit entity that counts as that is the umbrella org that sam was previously ceo of.

If there's a large restructuring: It’s hard to anticipate all possible options. I guess I’ll just say for now that I will resolve to whoever is CEO of the whatever the umbrella entity is that has legal power over the others. If there is no CEO of this entity, resolves to none option. If for some reason it is unclear what entity is the one which has legal power over the others, I will use my best judgment including potentially consulting others (I have bought no shares in order or have no CoI)

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