resolved Nov 30
Sam Altman
Mira Murati
Elon Musk
Adam D'angelo
Ilya sutskevar - [Edit: MIspelled, Resolves NO]
Greg Brockman
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Tasha McCauley
Helen Toner
Jan Leike
Nick Ryder
Nat Friedman
None - position will cease to exist
Paul Christiano
Eric Schmidt
Demis Hassabis
Patrick Collison
Linda Yaccarino
Daniel Gross

After Sam Altman. https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition. Resolves based on whoever is announced as permanent, non-interim CEO

The misspelled Ilya answer will be resolved to NO. I have attempted to refund people who were hurt by the policy changing, but I only did this to a first approximation. Lmk if you deserve more of a refund.

Edits below:

I’ve had admins changed this market so only I can add answers to try to keep the market speedy and reduce the chance we get to the max 100 before all candidates have been revealed. If a candidate is announced as permanent suddenly and other shoots to 100 I will just resolve to Other to avoid annoying yes splitting. Ping me here if you have people you want to add (or PM me). I’ll try to check at least every few hours when I’m not sleeping.

Clarification: If openai ceases to exist (e.g. is shut down, or merged/acquired by another company and dismantled or changed into another team, unlike e.g. LinkedIn which still operates independently as a subsidiary) it resolves to none. There’s I guess an edge case where it is merged with another company to create a new one and it’s not clear which company was merged into the other, but I think it would probably make sense to still resolve none

Tentative clarifications about which entity the person has to be CEO of:
It is just the nonprofit entity that counts as that is the umbrella org that sam was previously ceo of.

If there's a large restructuring: It’s hard to anticipate all possible options. I guess I’ll just say for now that I will resolve to whoever is CEO of the whatever the umbrella entity is that has legal power over the others. If there is no CEO of this entity, resolves to none option. If for some reason it is unclear what entity is the one which has legal power over the others, I will use my best judgment including potentially consulting others (I have bought no shares in order or have no CoI)

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bought Ṁ4,000 of Sam Altman YES

resolves YES - https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board

Message from Sam to the company

I am returning to OpenAI as CEO. Mira will return to her role as CTO. The new initial board will consist of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D’Angelo.

@jacksonpolack Done. Gg all

bought Ṁ1,560 of Sam Altman YES

Kalshi has resolved their version of the Next Permanent OpenAI CEO market.

If Sam Altman is announced as the next permanent CEO of OpenAI by Dec 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from OpenAI.

Expiration value: Yes

I don't see why Kalshi was correct to resolve this? They say the outcome comes from OpenAI, and the last announcement from OpenAI was the 'agreement in principle' 'We are collaborating to figure out the details.'

@aenews meh, I agree with jackson polack here. That description explicitly says "announced as". I think you could almost say that would qualify Altman as working as Microsoft, considering Satya and Sam (can't recall if there was an official Microsoft one, I think no?) both put out statements on it.

@jacksonpolack If it's good enough for a CFTC-regulated exchange, should be good enough for a play money website 😉

But yeah, the reason appears to be that Bloomberg is a resolution source for Kalshi.


Okay, applying bounded distrust, what makes me nervous here is that the explicit statements that sam is back are

Sam Altman was reinstated as OpenAI CEO less than five days after his ouster.Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Altman Is Back at OpenAI, But Questions Remain as to Why He Was Fired in First Place

i.e. in the title and the subtitle / caption of a photo. Which are often places where information is not reliable.

From Scott's Bounded Distrust:

The Marx article, if you read it extremely carefully with all the knowledge you gained from the debunking, doesn’t confidently assert a connection between Lincoln and Marx (except in the headline and subtitle, which are usually written by someone else).

The text says

Sam Altman is returning to lead OpenAI less than five days after his surprise dismissal

Which is compatible with him not being reinstated quite yet, but being reinstated soon.

@jacksonpolack Yeah. To be clear, I don't think Kalshi should have resolved just yet. But I guess it makes sense if they list both OpenAI and Bloomberg as sources. Indeed, just the title is a bit iffy.

RESOLVES (soon?)

@shankypanky Will wait until it’s not “in principle”

Might be fake but good lord if true https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1727096607752282485?s=20

bought Ṁ1,000 of Sam Altman YES
bought Ṁ20 of Sam Altman NO

@KevinBurke Strange that Kalshi already resolved to Altman



Another update:

- talks between Sam and the board center on him coming back *as CEO* —not in any other role.

- Emmett Shear is now part of these negotiations, along with Adam D’Angelo

I feel like the amount of conflicting information coming out about what's going on here is more consistent with the possibility that there are (possibly multiple) "sources" who are just totally making up stories to suit their preferred outcome. It's been shown multiple times that "credible reporting" on events was outright false. The leaked information that seems to come out seems to generally favor the Altman camp, which would make sense if there was a concerted whisper campaign to try to force out the board by manipulating the sentiments of the only leverage anyone has over the board (the employees). I would like to believe that the board of a leading AI company is not petty or stupid and they have good reasons for their actions, however inscrutable it seems now. This would also be consistent with the possibility that Altman is just an extremely manipulative guy, which has been suggested several times at this point by people who have had relationships with him.

@Balasar Let's also not forget that Altman CHOSE this outcome, he could have decided to leave quietly with some dignity but he instead rallied this massive campaign which has grievously wounded the company that he claims he "loves so much". Definitely textbook narcissism and Machiavellianism.

bought Ṁ500 of Sam Altman YES

I'm gonna say it's probably a good idea to bet on a machiavellian narcissist coming out on top of a power struggle.

bought Ṁ100 of Sam Altman NO

@Joshua will he come out on top of the overall power struggle as well? https://manifold.markets/ErickBall/will-the-first-agi-be-built-by-sam?r=RXJpY2tCYWxs

@Balasar What are the outright false things?

@bec Many of the reasons for firing were nonsense, the various claims about replacement CEOs, and I also think there's some good evidence that the Anthropic thing was BS.

(source: Bloomberg)

even the interim CEO can't resolve the "why was he fired?" market 😬

bought Ṁ100 of Emmett Shear NO


this is just 'politics is the mind killer' from those reddit posters, taking a side in the drama dropped their reading comprehension by six grade levels. shear's saying that everyone dying because of AI is bad, and worse than being ruled by nazis. that's true! i'd rather be ruled by nazis than dead.

@jacksonpolack I took it off once I checked the date. I assumed it was in real time like all the news on this but it was posted ages ago so doesn’t affect probability.

sold Ṁ99 of Emmett Shear NO

@jacksonpolack now for a different thought experiment. You are an alien judging quality of life and progress

on a planet in 1000

years time. Anyone alive today is long gone. Is it better by your judgement to be a human species ruled by a fascist regime? Or an non cellular intelligence with goals and clear intelligence?

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