The person must make a statement between market creation date and EOY 2025 PT that says that they have changed their opinion.

They must acknowledge that they are changing their opinion. E.g., they could say "I was wrong about the sky being red" or "I've changed my mind", or reply/quote tweet their previous statement they no longer believe in. Saying "The sky is red," and then later saying "The sky is blue," without acknowledging that this contradicts their previous statement, does NOT count.

Acknowledging new information, which they do not make clear that it changes their stance, does NOT count.

This change of opinion cannot be one that was previously made clear. A change of opinion counts if they privately change their opinion before this market is created, and publicize it later.

(These rules are to prevent it being too easy to count nearly any statement)

Second-hand accounts of people changing their opinion do not count, unless many independent people independently confirm it (e.g. many people saying the same thing about the contents of a conference talk). Otherwise, primary sources on the internet will count. This includes tweets, live streams, posts, videos (let's hope Sora doesn't make this too difficult), etc.

I will not trade in this market, since it is probably going to be subjective.

• Update 2025-10-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Trivial opinion changes count - This includes statements like "I thought it would be sunny today, but it looks like it's going to rain" as long as they acknowledge the change of opinion.