Resolves based on any of the following:
They do a "Why I Left the Left"–style article or otherwise directly state a right-wing pivot
Their listed party affiliation changes (or "ideology" tag is added to, if applicable) on Wikipedia, and remains so for over a month
Vibe-based Manifold poll following some event suggesting a significant movement rightwards, with the question "Did <x> pivot to the right from (date)?" And the answers "Yes," "No," "and "See Results" (A person can be voted on multiple times; NO resolutions will only come at market close).
If all else fails, my personal judgement
I will not bet in this market due to its subjective resolution criteria.
1,000People are also trading
@KJW_01294 Hot goss: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/gavin-newsom-podcast-20213385.php Second transphobia he’s done in two episodes.
my honest guess: as he continues these views, he’ll face sharp criticism from the sharp left, then will run rightward crying about closed-minded progressives
https://bsky.app/profile/governor.ca.gov/post/3lohxbi7xgs2o he’s using right wing dog whistles now! am I really the only one who sees this?
Had it been put on here, I'd have resolved Steak and Shake YES at this point — though previously mostly apolitical, they're making very clear, very politically blatant messaging moves towards the right lately (mostly towards RFK fans with their seed oil messaging). I feel there's more than enough general MAGA-adjacent messaging for it to have gone YES, though I'd probably have opened a poll for it just to stay on the safe side.