See here for context on "double it and pass it on": https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it-d9q609ZP6R
This is 95% inspired by this market: https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/futarchy-if-i-send-4096-mana-to-thi?r=Y2Fsb3Vy
I have to send 4096 mana to someone by Oct 14, 2025, 09:38 AM, and they then have to double it and pass it on. I want to choose someone who is incentivized to double it.
Feel free to add any users EXCEPT 121, Tumbles, Orangey, Conflux, or existing chain links (bens, Quroe, strutheo, SimonWestlake, MylieSiegel, MaxE, Jasonb, Nat, Robincvgr, calour). Any invalid options will be immediately N/Aed.
The option for the user I sent the mana to resolves YES if they double it it and pass it on in the correct way and NO otherwise, and all other options resolve N/A.
How I will choose the recipient:
In order to be eligible to receive the mana, you must be incentivized to double it and pass it on. You can do this by buying 16385 YES shares of your own option here. NO shares on the "10" option on this market are equivalent and also accepted: https://manifold.markets/Quroe/how-many-manifolders-will-double-it-d9q609ZP6R?r=Y2Fsb3Vy. If you own YES shares on "10" or NO shares on "11"/"≥12", they will count against the amount of shares you have.
You may find it difficult to find a counterparty, since you can't bet the AMM above 99%. To solve this, place a 99% YES limit order (the "Max YES payout" tells you how much shares you would be buying), private message me a good trading tip, and the DIAPIO financial complex will fill the limit order if the trading tip isn't stupid (e.g. "buy low, sell high" or "bet 10k YES on daily coinflip").
If multiple people meet the criteria, I will send the mana to the person whoever had the highest time-weighted average probability of passing it on over the final hour before closing, in order to avoid last minute manipulation. (exact hour TBA)
If no one is eligible, I will choose a recipient according to some other algorithm. If this new recipient is already added to this market, the resolution is the same as before. Otherwise, all options resolve N/A.
Related markets: https://manifold.markets/news/double-it-ep-2, derivative markets of this market are discouraged.
The final hour of this market will be 10:00 to 11:00 PDT on Oct 13, 2025 (13:00-14:00 EDT, 19:00 to 20:00 CEST)
Answer submissions will be disabled several 13 hours before close, at 10:00 PDT / 01:00 EDT / 07:00 CEST.
1,000People are also trading
I can already count three flaws with the incentive structure. First person to private message me any three flaws wins M100.
@calour Almost every other "Double It" market has been unranked so far. It's ultimately up to Manifold to call the shot on that one.
If this is unranked, the inspiration market should be unranked too.
@Quroe it doesn't seem to meet any of these criteria, idk how up to date this document is though: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Guidance-for-running-a-market-8cb4257ed3644ec9a1d6cc6c705f7c77
@Quroe it should be unranked bc the outcome is entirely dependent on a person taking action (similar to Personal Goals markets etc where the outcome is directly related to someone choosing to do/not do the thing) so I'm unranking.