Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?
Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?
15
290Ṁ3197
resolved Dec 15
Resolved
YES

This market is an experiment in allowing "investments" in the portfolios of other Manifold users.

From Oct 15 to Nov 15 (GMT), the value of @jack's portfolio went from M$108,000 to $165,450, an increase of 53%. This was not an outlier: the value of @jack's portfolio was M$11,380 on July 15, M$26,400 on Aug 15 (+132.0%), M$33,700 on Sept 15 (+27.6%), and had +220.5% growth to October. The average of these monthly growth rates is 108%. There is reason to believe that the rate of growth is going to be lower in December (fewer high-value markets resolving, surviving counterparties being more sophisticated ), but @jack may surprise.

This market resolves YES if the value of @jack's portfolio has more than doubled on Dec 15. More precisely, if the value of @jack's portfolio is greater than M$330,900 at 00:00:00 GMT on Dec 15, then this market will resolve "YES".

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predictedNO 2y

boo

2y

M$334,577. I'm impressed.

2y
predictedYES 2y

I wasn't going to manipulate it myself because I was feeling nice and the profit opportunity wasn't really big enough for me to be interested, but then Isaac did it for me haha.

I feel that the comments below were plenty of warning to the traders about what to expect.

2y

@IsaacKing Figured you were doing some type of scheme. Well, that's fine, the way I see it I just spent $5 to raise $500 for charity. I consider this an absolute win.

predictedNO 2y

@ForrestTaylor Can someone explain exactly what the manipulation was? I don't even know how to send mana to other people...

predictedYES 2y

@WilliamHoward You can send mana to other people with Manalinks https://manifold.markets/links (it's not a super well known feature, it's under labs)

The manipulation was simply sending me enough mana to get above the 330k threshold (and then I returned it after).

This is why I suggested profit would be a better metric, although beware that profit can also be manipulated (not quite as easily, but still pretty easy).

predictedYES 2y

@WilliamHoward Unfortunately it's hard to find the way to send mana from the main page. You have to click the "more" button in the sidebar, then "labs", and then select "manalinks". Or use the direct URL that Jack provided.

predictedNO 2y

Oh. Well, that's disappointing. Well, I guess I spent $5 to learn about manalinks, and also learned who not to trust.

predictedYES 2y

Isaac did buy $300 so it did raise $300 for charity. And this isn't a reason not to trust anyone involved. Everyone was playing by the rules, and there are a zillion ways to manipulate portfolio value - this is by no means the only one.

predictedNO 2y

@jack In that case I am happy again! 👍

predictedYES 2y

@ForrestTaylor Just so you know, market manipulation is very common on Manifold. Any time a market's resolution criteria are easy to manipulate, you should expect it to likely happen.

predictedYES 2y

(We mainly do this because it's fun, but it can also be justified by the fact that it helps people learn how to write robust, non-goodhartable criteria for more important markets.)

predictedNO 2y

@IsaacKing Can you explain to me what "goodhartable" means? Google isn't providing me with an obvious answer and I don't want to bug ChatGPT about it

predictedYES 2y

@ForrestTaylor Oh, sorry, it's a reference to Goodhart's Law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

predictedYES 2y

Heh, ChatGPT doesn't know either. Only gets it once I remove the "able".

2y

No offense Jack but I'm not seeing how you can make 50,000 mana in four days. Will be impressed if you prove me wrong!

2y

@ForrestTaylor $USD 500 would do it!

2y

Buying no as both a prediction and a hedge?

2y

This question is based on a bad assumption about what my portfolio value means. It is only a lower bound on my actual portfolio value because I occasionally use alt accounts, and sometimes move funds between them.

A question on profit would likely work better.

2y

I do appreciate the analysis and think it's quite an interesting question though, thanks for creating.

Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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