Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?
15
290Ṁ3197
resolved Dec 15
Resolved
YES

This market is an experiment in allowing "investments" in the portfolios of other Manifold users.

From Oct 15 to Nov 15 (GMT), the value of @jack's portfolio went from M$108,000 to $165,450, an increase of 53%. This was not an outlier: the value of @jack's portfolio was M$11,380 on July 15, M$26,400 on Aug 15 (+132.0%), M$33,700 on Sept 15 (+27.6%), and had +220.5% growth to October. The average of these monthly growth rates is 108%. There is reason to believe that the rate of growth is going to be lower in December (fewer high-value markets resolving, surviving counterparties being more sophisticated ), but @jack may surprise.

This market resolves YES if the value of @jack's portfolio has more than doubled on Dec 15. More precisely, if the value of @jack's portfolio is greater than M$330,900 at 00:00:00 GMT on Dec 15, then this market will resolve "YES".

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