boo

M$334,577. I'm impressed.

I wasn't going to manipulate it myself because I was feeling nice and the profit opportunity wasn't really big enough for me to be interested, but then Isaac did it for me haha.

I feel that the comments below were plenty of warning to the traders about what to expect.

@IsaacKing Figured you were doing some type of scheme. Well, that's fine, the way I see it I just spent $5 to raise $500 for charity. I consider this an absolute win.

@ForrestTaylor Can someone explain exactly what the manipulation was? I don't even know how to send mana to other people...

@WilliamHoward You can send mana to other people with Manalinks https://manifold.markets/links (it's not a super well known feature, it's under labs)

The manipulation was simply sending me enough mana to get above the 330k threshold (and then I returned it after).

This is why I suggested profit would be a better metric, although beware that profit can also be manipulated (not quite as easily, but still pretty easy).

@WilliamHoward Unfortunately it's hard to find the way to send mana from the main page. You have to click the "more" button in the sidebar, then "labs", and then select "manalinks". Or use the direct URL that Jack provided.

Oh. Well, that's disappointing. Well, I guess I spent $5 to learn about manalinks, and also learned who not to trust.

Isaac did buy $300 so it did raise $300 for charity. And this isn't a reason not to trust anyone involved. Everyone was playing by the rules, and there are a zillion ways to manipulate portfolio value - this is by no means the only one.

@jack In that case I am happy again! 👍

@ForrestTaylor Just so you know, market manipulation is very common on Manifold. Any time a market's resolution criteria are easy to manipulate, you should expect it to likely happen.

(We mainly do this because it's fun, but it can also be justified by the fact that it helps people learn how to write robust, non-goodhartable criteria for more important markets.)

@IsaacKing Can you explain to me what "goodhartable" means? Google isn't providing me with an obvious answer and I don't want to bug ChatGPT about it

@ForrestTaylor Oh, sorry, it's a reference to Goodhart's Law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

Heh, ChatGPT doesn't know either. Only gets it once I remove the "able".

No offense Jack but I'm not seeing how you can make 50,000 mana in four days. Will be impressed if you prove me wrong!

@ForrestTaylor $USD 500 would do it!

Buying no as both a prediction and a hedge?

This question is based on a bad assumption about what my portfolio value means. It is only a lower bound on my actual portfolio value because I occasionally use alt accounts, and sometimes move funds between them.

A question on profit would likely work better.

I do appreciate the analysis and think it's quite an interesting question though, thanks for creating.

Manifold user futures market: will @jack's portfolio increase by >100% by Dec 15, 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition