🏅 Top traders

Why did the season end at 9:09pm PT but it says it ended at 9:32pm PT. Is this just bugged?

next season:

@traders Congrats to @Bayesian for his third win in five months! And a strong showing from @HillaryClinton

One hell of a close one. A nail biter throughout.

@brod the season ended 12:32am April 2nd? What time zone is being used? Lol

@HillaryClinton yeah it prints in local time, i’m in australia

@brod my local time is 12:19am....

@brod Ah that reminds me the times i sent earlier may have been 3h-off misinformation based on timezone differences

Season 01: Ended Jun 1, 2023, 3:06:23 PM
Season 02: Ended Jul 1, 2023, 3:22:53 PM
Season 03: Ended Aug 1, 2023, 8:05:29 PM
Season 04: Ended Sep 1, 2023, 11:20:04 PM
Season 05: Ended Oct 1, 2023, 2:17:16 PM
Season 06: Ended Nov 1, 2023, 5:01:38 PM
Season 07: Ended Dec 1, 2023, 5:02:25 PM
Season 08: Ended Jan 1, 2024, 10:06:12 PM
Season 09: Ended Feb 1, 2024, 8:51:49 PM
Season 10: Ended Mar 1, 2024, 6:30:22 PM

Season 11: Ended Apr 2, 2024, 1:43:18 AM
Season 12: Ended May 1, 2024, 7:32:08 PM
Season 13: Ended Jun 1, 2024, 2:10:19 PM
Season 14: Ended Jul 1, 2024, 9:41:35 PM
Season 15: Ended Aug 2, 2024, 1:11:54 AM
Season 16: Ended Sep 1, 2024, 3:54:14 PM
Season 17: Ended Oct 1, 2024, 6:55:00 PM
Season 18: Ended Nov 2, 2024, 6:18:29 PM
Season 19: Ended Dec 2, 2024, 1:19:34 PM
Season 20: Ended Jan 2, 2025, 1:06:13 AM
Season 21: Ended Feb 2, 2025, 1:18:13 AM
Season 22: Ended Mar 2, 2025, 5:25:41 AM

COUNT
first half of 1st: 0
second half of 1st: 15
2nd: 7

in the last 5 months, 5 2nds in a row

EDIT: i think this table should be moved off 3 hours into the past, changing the results. I hd forgotten to account for the timezone difference which is 3 hours

wait i must have gotten it wrong it says dec 2 2024 for two of them (edit: fixed)

@Bayesian well… I guess it’s not random then 😆

@Bayesian Who is the historian we should credit for this information? Or how was it found?

@Bayesian

So basically it never ends before 0.6 days, and the last few months have been considerably longer than normal

@Quroe

@Bayesian Cheers, mate.

@mods Please choose a random end time from the 24 hours. I'm a little confused if there is a bias towards ending these leagues in the 2nd half of the day vs the first half.

@HillaryClinton does someone have the stats on end time? I feel like it's in the second half of the 24 hour period like 80% of the time, but perhaps that's just recollection bias

Calling all Manifold historians!

@bens It’s almost always in the second half of the day. It’s probably more often after the first of the month than in the first half of the day

I'm guessing somebody has to manually pull the trigger?

but then again ian is online rn and they dont have to spend the monthly allotted time to a meeting as much bc team is smaller? Idrk

@Quroe Yeah

@Bayesian So it closes on April 2nd potentially?

Do they take a random snapshot of the previous day? or just choose a time on April 2nd?

@HillaryClinton that I'm not sure about, i'm also wondering

@HillaryClinton also tbc this is up to admins not mods

@Bayesian @HillaryClinton from my experience it does use the rankings at final close, even if that’s on the 2nd. David handled league close for the last few months, they close at his whim / schedule

@HillaryClinton to clarify, all mods can do is stuff with resolving markets/banning users/etc i.e. moderation they have zero control over any internal site stuff

@ above, yeah it's obviously not random, staff has to actually run the update. previously that was james, now david.

under james, it was extremely non-random, but that basically just meant sometime in the 2nd alf of the day. the actual time leagues end (in the sense of "the cutoff for ranking") wasn't actually the same as the time that's displayed to users, it was backdated a bit (for details, see eliza's comments here: https://manifold.markets/mattyb/will-a-manifold-league-season-rando) but usually just a little bit, so it didn't impact much.

last few months, it has been even later, often on the 2nd. but it's been backdated by more than before, usually back to sometime at night on the 1st. but @ above, it isn't always backdated to the same time on the 1st. e.g. it looks like last time it was 2am on the 2nd, the month before it was 10pm on the 1st, & etc (i'm guessing the time in the code is the cutoff used for calculating league placement, but @Eliza would know to confirm).