Who will win Masters Season 23?

This competition is BS. Bayseians biggest gains are 10k from betting on Robinhood trading being approved, after it already was approved, and 9k from manipulation on the Tesla >690 market.

@HillaryClinton hi, it’s me, BS, the competition

@HillaryClinton what exactly

does “manipulation” mean here

@Ziddletwix Some guy bought Tesla >690 at ridiculous prices using Market orders, vs limit orders. Pumped the price up to almost 50%, very briefly. It's now around 10%. Lost 43,000 Mana in minutes.

@HillaryClinton if you think that's crazy, wait til you see what happened last time! /MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e (i.e. 100x that 40k loss)

@Ziddletwix Yea, I guess he doesn't know how to use the limit order button.

@Ziddletwix more broadly, it is obviously true that "manifold profit" & "predictive skill" are at most vaguely correlated. that's just how trading works—trading is partially about "prediction" & partially about selecting your counterparty (whether it's (a) setting limit orders against a known whale who makes large market order purchases, (b) newstrading into the AMM, (c) negotiating in the comments of the ukraine ceasefire market to find counterparties at the price & volume you'd like, or etc).

but unless you want to actually commit to that yourself (i.e. not taking newstrading profits & negotiating to find particularly favorable counterparties), it is weird to call out bayesian here—that's just how profit works.

when it comes to interpreting long term track record, this is a tricky knot to untangle ("what does manifold profit actually prove?"). when it comes to leagues, it barely matters—monthly profit is already insanely arbitrary & noisy, & says basically nothing about predictive skill. there's nothing sacred or pure about "profit on monthly trades"—someone might just (& often does!) coinflip 100k on a march madness game on the last day to win leagues anyways.