Resolves to the winner of Masters league season 23.
@Ziddletwix Some guy bought Tesla >690 at ridiculous prices using Market orders, vs limit orders. Pumped the price up to almost 50%, very briefly. It's now around 10%. Lost 43,000 Mana in minutes.


@HillaryClinton if you think that's crazy, wait til you see what happened last time! /MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e (i.e. 100x that 40k loss)
@Ziddletwix more broadly, it is obviously true that "manifold profit" & "predictive skill" are at most vaguely correlated. that's just how trading works—trading is partially about "prediction" & partially about selecting your counterparty (whether it's (a) setting limit orders against a known whale who makes large market order purchases, (b) newstrading into the AMM, (c) negotiating in the comments of the ukraine ceasefire market to find counterparties at the price & volume you'd like, or etc).
but unless you want to actually commit to that yourself (i.e. not taking newstrading profits & negotiating to find particularly favorable counterparties), it is weird to call out bayesian here—that's just how profit works.
when it comes to interpreting long term track record, this is a tricky knot to untangle ("what does manifold profit actually prove?"). when it comes to leagues, it barely matters—monthly profit is already insanely arbitrary & noisy, & says basically nothing about predictive skill. there's nothing sacred or pure about "profit on monthly trades"—someone might just (& often does!) coinflip 100k on a march madness game on the last day to win leagues anyways.
@Ziddletwix Yea I get it. I can't fault Bayesian for TSLABULL's dumb trades. Just very annoying when I want to win the Master's League.
Should I grind? I've never won Masters yet.
@Bayesian oh I get what you mean now, he puts tons of mana into a market that is not technically a coin flip but acts like one
Let's go Bay (42 was the max I could buy without reaching the 20% safety)