Who will win Masters Season 23?
24
3.3kṀ26k
Apr 2
54%
Bayesian
30%
Hillary Clinton
7%
Ammon Lam

Resolves to the winner of Masters league season 23.

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This competition is BS. Bayseians biggest gains are 10k from betting on Robinhood trading being approved, after it already was approved, and 9k from manipulation on the Tesla >690 market.

@HillaryClinton hi, it’s me, BS, the competition

@HillaryClinton what exactly

does “manipulation” mean here

@Ziddletwix Some guy bought Tesla >690 at ridiculous prices using Market orders, vs limit orders. Pumped the price up to almost 50%, very briefly. It's now around 10%. Lost 43,000 Mana in minutes.

@HillaryClinton if you think that's crazy, wait til you see what happened last time! /MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e (i.e. 100x that 40k loss)

@Ziddletwix Yea, I guess he doesn't know how to use the limit order button.

@Ziddletwix more broadly, it is obviously true that "manifold profit" & "predictive skill" are at most vaguely correlated. that's just how trading works—trading is partially about "prediction" & partially about selecting your counterparty (whether it's (a) setting limit orders against a known whale who makes large market order purchases, (b) newstrading into the AMM, (c) negotiating in the comments of the ukraine ceasefire market to find counterparties at the price & volume you'd like, or etc).

but unless you want to actually commit to that yourself (i.e. not taking newstrading profits & negotiating to find particularly favorable counterparties), it is weird to call out bayesian here—that's just how profit works.

when it comes to interpreting long term track record, this is a tricky knot to untangle ("what does manifold profit actually prove?"). when it comes to leagues, it barely matters—monthly profit is already insanely arbitrary & noisy, & says basically nothing about predictive skill. there's nothing sacred or pure about "profit on monthly trades"—someone might just (& often does!) coinflip 100k on a march madness game on the last day to win leagues anyways.

@Ziddletwix Yea I get it. I can't fault Bayesian for TSLABULL's dumb trades. Just very annoying when I want to win the Master's League.

@HillaryClinton totally fair!

i think ppl are sleeping on ammon lam idk

Should I grind? I've never won Masters yet.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@bens Yes grind please, I have 3.5k running on you

@bens You can probably do it I mean

bought Ṁ20 YES

Bayesian you can do this

bought Ṁ2 YES

you guys need to price in the fact that im built different

bought Ṁ10 YES

@spiderduckpig ok don't let me down

filled a Ṁ313 NO at 5% order

I don't know if Hillary has a large enough payload in the balance to make any big plays right now. I'll take those odds down to 5%.

Well, consider my mouth thoroughly stuffed with foot. Hillary's got game.

bought Ṁ200 NO

I don't think Ammon Lam will win. He won last season only because he got lucky. He doesn't have the trading skills to do it this season

@inaccessibles He coinflips every season, that should give him 50%ish

@Bayesian ranked coin flips? and is it also fair (at 50%)?

@Bayesian oh I get what you mean now, he puts tons of mana into a market that is not technically a coin flip but acts like one

@inaccessibles Exactly yeah

bought Ṁ42 YES

Let's go Bay (42 was the max I could buy without reaching the 20% safety)

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