Will this finally be the month?

(reminder, see pinned comment about close time vs. commit time. we’re using close time, not commit time).

So based on Eliza's times, there's a mean of 3:21 PM with a standard deviation of 3 hours and 18 minutes, which sort of kind of implies that the odds of each subsequent independent draw being after 9:00 AM should be 97% times 10 months (assuming Feb is already after 9 AM) puts the odds of them all ending after 9 at 76%? using science!

@probajoelistic

@mattyb

1. They don't close leagues until they've 'fixed' a bunch of outstanding issues that always accumulate by the end of the month. There's at least some evidence that there is an informal "hey everyone is it okay to resolve leagues yet" check before leagues are resolved.

2. James is asleep during much of the time before 9am.

3. But, importantly, leagues closing time can be backdated to any chosen time in the past! So if it's 3pm and James is ready to close leagues, he could put 9am as the date.

I think there is a very, very important clarification you need to establish for your market:

Does this resolve based on the COMMIT TIME or the HARDCODED ENDING TIME?

If James pushes the leagues closing event at noon, but the time listed is 4:30am, are you resolving this Yes?

@Eliza

But, importantly, leagues closing time can be backdated to any chosen time in the past! So if it's 3pm and James is ready to close leagues, he could put 9am as the date.

This is wild, and kinda ruins the spirit of this market. Has that happened before? Are some of the times that I posted below incorrect, and actually backdated?

@mattyb

The time listed is always in the past, but by a varying amount. The times you listed are the "season closing official times", but each one is only reflected on the site a period of time afterward:

Feb 1, 2024, 5:51:49 PM - 24 mins before commit

Jan 1, 2024, 7:06:12 PM - 1 min before commit

Dec 1, 2023, 2:02:25 PM - 27 mins before commit

Nov 1, 2023, 2:01:38 PM - 6 mins before commit

Oct 1, 2023, 11:17:16 AM - 2 mins before commit

Sep 1, 2023, 8:20:04 PM - 1h24m before commit

Aug 1, 2023, 5:05:29 PM - 1h02m before commit

Jul 1, 2023, 12:22:53 PM - 41 mins before commit

Jun 1, 2023, 12:06:23 PM - 14 mins before commit

So, just for example, leagues in September closed at 8:20pm, but we didn't find out about it until 9:44pm. Make sense?

If leagues in December closed at 8:20am, but we didn't find out until 9:44am, would this resolve Yes or No?

@Eliza ok, thanks for explaining this all. Let’s go with the close time, not the informing time. So what I wrote in the comment below would be applicable. I’ll update the description.

So in your example, closed at 8:20am, it would Resolve YES.

@mattyb I don't think it ruins the point of this market very much. Because they will never back date it too far, as that would annoy a lot of people.

@jim If the random time was 3am, I doubt anyone would know until they wake up....

@Eliza europeans exist…

@mattyb James is not in Europe! He's the only one doing this action! He's never closed leagues while he was asleep.

@Eliza yea, but the people who are trading during those hours are europeans. they could backdate it that early, and count the europeans doing all the last minute mana buying, but not the americans.

the point of this market is, if it was truly random, that would happen. there’d be a random 3am or 8am one eventually.

@mattyb Right, but we wouldn't know until James woke up hours later.

Has this not happened yet? 🤨

@probajoelistic Nope! Close in October, but still 2.25hrs off.

Feb 1, 2024, 5:51:49 PM

Jan 1, 2024, 7:06:12 PM

Dec 1, 2023, 2:02:25 PM

Nov 1, 2023, 2:01:38 PM

Oct 1, 2023, 11:17:16 AM

Sep 1, 2023, 8:20:04 PM

Aug 1, 2023, 5:05:29 PM

Jul 1, 2023, 12:22:53 PM

Jun 1, 2023, 12:06:23 PM

@mattyb Mar 1, 2024 at 3:30:22 PM