Background During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch what is called unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating autonomously without human drivers inside the car.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Tesla launches a paid ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 where vehicles operate without human supervision inside the car. The market will resolve NO if:
The launch is delayed beyond June 2025
The service requires human supervision/safety drivers in the car
The service is canceled or not launched at all
The definition of no human driver is clear. The Sawyer merritt and Tesla statements are what they are promising in June. If they launch a paid service without the supervised driver then that counts.
Yes the service must be:
A commercial, paid service
Unsupervised/ no safety driver
It is still YES even if they have the ability to take remote control.
Waymo can take remote control but they are considered by the media as a robotaxi service.
Apollo Go in China, Cruise are considered robotaxi services.
The standard is no human driver in the car and a paid service.
Others can debate their definitions but other questions can be created.
Update 2025-04-30 (PST): - Public access requirement: the service must be bookable by ordinary (non-Tesla employee) customers. If only Tesla employees can book it, the market resolves NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Remote monitoring does not count as supervision. The determination of 'unsupervised' focuses on the absence of a human driver in the car.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Access for non-Tesla employees can be limited by invitation.
Paid rides must still be provided to these invited non-employees for the service to qualify.
Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Remote driving or human remote supervision is not a disqualifying factor for the service to be considered unsupervised.
The standard for unsupervised is the absence of a human driver inside the vehicle.
This corrects a previous AI-generated summary from 2025-05-15 which incorrectly stated that human remote supervision would be a disqualifying factor.
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Elon is retweeting more posts about robotaxis: https://x.com/Scobleizer/status/1932486504691216796
@TimothyJohnson5c16 tentative launch June 22. Might be pushed. According to Musk himself.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-robotaxi-launch-date-when-elon-musk-announces-june-222025-6
@Berg I assume. If it's not supervised and has no take over, I'll rate 5 stars, but the rule is wrong.
@ikoukas I think this market is closer to what you had in mind: https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/will-robotaxis-roll-out-in-austin-a?play=true.
@ikoukas Will non-Tesla-employee customers be able to book the rides and will they be required to pay?
@MachiNi yeah, I guess it's still open whether it's paid or a demo, but my issue was with the supervision.
@ikoukas I only changed the title because of the complainer who disputed what supervised and unsupervised means in the context of Tesla FSD. I clearly stated I was going with Tesla terms and not what people using their own definitions of supervised and unsupervised.
@ikoukas I immediately started with - Unsupervised/ no safety driver
It is still YES even if they have the ability to take remote control.
This was very clear and I just repeated it to make it more clear because people keep assuming the opposite.