Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, at least one sold Tesla vehicle autonomously drives from a Tesla facility directly to the buyer's house.

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1912243208421023763?t=d8-LSblgX1Rv1jTho6LxxA&s=19

• Update 2025-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update:

  • If a human teleoperator is involved for safety purposes, the market will be resolved to 50%.

• Update 2025-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Human Teleoperator Involvement

  • A drive involving any human safety operator sitting behind the wheel will not count toward a qualifying autonomous drive.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a Tesla employee delivers the car while sitting in the driver's seat with a stop button, the market will resolve to 10%.

• Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If a Tesla employee or supervisor delivers the car while sitting in the passenger seat, the market will resolve to 10%.

• Update 2025-06-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they may resolve this market as a percentage based on their judgment of two factors:

  • How autonomous the system is

  • How scalable the solution is

• Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator may evaluate all available evidence at the end of the year to resolve the market to a percentage between 50% and 100%. This will be based on a subjective judgment of how autonomous the system appears to be. High scalability of the service may reduce the need for independent evidence.

• Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a more nuanced view on the involvement of a remote operator:

  • A remote operator supervising the trip without intervening is considered different from a remote operator being in control.

  • A trip with remote supervision but no intervention may resolve to over 50%, but likely not 100%.

  • The final resolution will also be evaluated based on how easily the autonomous delivery service scales.

• Update 2025-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve the market before the end of 2025 if provided with proof that no remote operator was hired to supervise the delivery. Otherwise, the market will resolve at the end of 2025 based on an evaluation of all available evidence.