Background During Tesla's Q4 2024 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk announced plans to launch an unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) service in Austin, Texas. The service will operate as a paid ride-hailing option, with vehicles operating autonomously without human drivers.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Tesla launches a paid ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas in June 2025 where vehicles operate without human supervision. The market will resolve NO if:

• The launch is delayed beyond June 2025

• The service requires human supervision/safety drivers

• The service is canceled or not launched at all

The definition of no human driver is clear. The Sawyer merritt and Tesla statements are what they are promising in June. If they launch a paid service without the supervised driver then that counts.

Yes the service must be:

• A commercial, paid service

• Unsupervised/ no safety driver

• It is still YES even if they have the ability to take remote control.

Waymo can take remote control but they are considered by the media as a robotaxi service.

Apollo Go in China, Cruise are considered robotaxi services.

The standard is no human driver in the car and a paid service.

Others can debate their definitions but other questions can be created.

• Update 2025-04-30 (PST): - Public access requirement: the service must be bookable by ordinary (non-Tesla employee) customers. If only Tesla employees can book it, the market resolves NO. (AI summary of creator comment)