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MANIFOLD
How many views will the Wikipedia page Prediction market have in October 2023?
26
Ṁ1.1kṀ6.3k
resolved Nov 1
100%96%
4000 - 4999 views
0.2%
≤ 2999 views
1.1%
3000 - 3999 views
3%
> 5000 views

How many views will the Wikipedia page Prediction market have in October 2023?

Resolution determined by the Wikipedia Pageviews API for the page Prediction market with timestamp 2023100100 with only user agents counted, data collected in November. Exact link is https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/metrics/pageviews/per-article/en.wikipedia/all-access/user/Prediction_market/monthly/2023100100/2023110100.

"Prediction market" got 3029 page views in September 2023. Its views has been steadily decreasing, but there are occasional peaks in the data.

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Btw, this number was extremely easy to manipulate. Literally just hitting refresh counts. Wish I checked it sooner, I barely bet anything because I wasn't confident it would work.

@Shump Hitting refresh is enough? Not in my experience…

@oh Maybe it was somebody else's manipulating that changed this? Not sure why else the number jumped. A bit hard to know because it updates quite slowly

@Shump I see around 200 more views than expected on October 30th (300 views compared to usually 100 views). Was that you?

See https://wikimedia.org/api/rest_v1/metrics/pageviews/per-article/en.wikipedia/all-access/user/Prediction_market/daily/2023100100/2023110100 for daily metrics

@Shump I was the biggest winner on this market and I didn't do any manipulation. The number was well over the 4000 limit when I invested, so the market just didn't reach too quickly.

Y'all are widely optimistic

> 5000 views is supposed to be ≥ 5000 views