Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
3
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2030
20%
chance

This market assesses whether quantum computers will demonstrate a practical advantage in cryptographic applications before January 1, 2030. Resolution criteria: - YES: A quantum computer successfully breaks a currently secure encryption standard (like RSA-2048) OR demonstrates practical quantum-resistant cryptography capabilities that are deployed in production systems. - NO: No such practical advantage is demonstrated by the end of 2029. The achievement must be publicly verified by multiple reputable institutions.

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