Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?
Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?
9
228Ṁ1542030
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Based on the resolution to this market:
Resolves YES if quantum advantage is demonstrated before 2030, according to the linked market (i.e., the linked market resolves to some number) and NO if it is not (i.e., the linked market resolves N/A).
If the linked market resolves N/A due to some edge case, rather than a definite case of quantum advantage not being demonstrated before 2030, this market will resolve N/A as well.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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