This market depends on the opinions of international election observers like the OSCE and historically-friendly governments to the US, like those of Great Britain, France, Germany, Japan, Australia, and the like. (The claims of countries generally considered geopolitical adversaries, like China or Russia, won't matter for the purposes of this market.)

This market resolves to "fully fair" if:

• More than 3/4 of election observers characterize the US federal elections of 2026 as fundamentally free and fair, at least to the same extent as the elections of 2020, 2022, and 2024. An objection like the electoral college or the non-proportionality of Senate representation will not prevent the market from resolving "yes", any objection must be unique to the 2026 election.

This market resolves to "disputed / backsliding" if:

• Less than 3/4, but more than 1/4, of observers characterize the elections as free and fair, with the same conditions as "fully fair", AND less than 1/2 characterize it as a sham election, comparable to those of e.g. Russia.

This market resolves to "flawed / substantial backsliding" if:

• More than 3/4 of observers agree that the election was not fully fair, OR

• At least 1/2 of observers characterize the election as a sham election, OR

This market resolves to "sham election" if

• More than 3/4 of observers characterize the election as such, OR

• Only one party in the 2026 elections receives more than 25% of the popular vote (given that such a landslide is effectively impossible in a fair election under current US law - this hasn't happened since the uncontested election of 1820)

This market resolves to "no election/offices abolished" if:

• No United States federal election is held in 2026, or

• The offices normally elected in US federal election are abolished before the scheduled date (November 3, 2026) of the 2026 election.

This market resolves on December 31, 2026, but may resolve later if relevant organizations have not released their findings by that date.