Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States military launches an armed invasion or military attack on Greenland by February 28, 2026. An invasion is defined as the deployment of armed forces with the intent to seize or occupy territory by force. This includes any military operation involving combat, airstrikes, amphibious landings, or similar hostile military action.

Resolution is based on credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming that military action has occurred. Diplomatic negotiations, tariff threats, or non-military coercive measures do not qualify. The market resolves NO if no such military action occurs by the deadline.

Background

Trump has ramped up threats to forcibly annex the Arctic island, with a range of options on the table, including a military attack. Trump ordered the Joint Special Operations Command to make plans for what he called a "possible invasion of Greenland", though the joint chiefs are resisting because they believe an invasion would be illegal and lack congressional support.

Denmark, which is responsible for Greenland's defense, has warned an attack on Greenland would all but end NATO. Democratic and Republican senators introduced the bipartisan No Funds for NATO Invasion Act, which prohibits the use of federal funds for the invasion of any NATO member state or NATO-protected territory. According to YouGov, 8 percent of Americans support using military force to take Greenland from Denmark.

Considerations

An invasion of Greenland could trigger a NATO response under Article 5 of the organization's charter. Trump announced 10% tariffs on eight European countries beginning February 1, with levies raised to 25% on June 1 if no agreement is in place—suggesting his current strategy emphasizes economic pressure over military action within the February 28 timeframe.