Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on August 31, 2025, NVIDIA is legally prohibited from exporting its H20 chips to China. If no such prohibition is in place, or if any licenses for export to China are in effect on the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
Background
In April 2025, the U.S. government imposed export restrictions requiring NVIDIA to obtain licenses to sell its H20 AI chips to China, leading to a temporary halt in sales and a reported $5.5 billion charge for unsold inventory. (cnbc.com) However, in July 2025, NVIDIA announced it had received U.S. government approval to resume H20 chip sales to China, with plans to begin deliveries soon. (apnews.com) CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the importance of the Chinese market, noting that half of the world's AI researchers are based there. (apnews.com)
Considerations
The U.S. government's stance on technology exports to China has been subject to change, influenced by evolving trade policies and national security concerns. While NVIDIA has secured approval to resume H20 chip sales as of July 2025, future policy shifts could impact this approval. Traders should monitor official announcements from the U.S. government and reputable news sources for any updates regarding export restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chips to China.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ78 | |
| 2 | Ṁ38 | |
| 3 | Ṁ20 | |
| 4 | Ṁ18 | |
| 5 | Ṁ16 |
From NVIDIA’s earnings call on Aug 27th:
“In late July, the U.S. government began reviewing licenses for sales of H20 to China customers. While a select number of our China- based customers have received licenses over the past few weeks, we have not shipped any H20 based on those licenses. USG officials have expressed an expectation that the USG will receive 15% of the revenue generated from licensed H20 sales, but to date, the USG has not published a regulation codifying such requirement.”
“So let me first answer your question regarding what will it take for the H20s to be shipped. There is interest in our H20s. There is the initial set of license that we received. And then additionally, we do have supply that we are ready, and that's why we communicated that somewhere in the range of about $2 billion to $5 billion this quarter, we could potentially ship.
We're still waiting on several of the geopolitical issues going back and forth between the governments and the companies trying to determine their purchases and what they want to do. So it's still open at this time, and we're not exactly sure what that full amount will be this quarter. However, if more interest arrives, more licenses arrives, again, we can also still build additional H20 and ship more as well.”