Currently TSMC is banned from selling leading-edge chips to a blacklist of Chinese companies including Huawei, and the US requires an export license to sell advanced chips to Chinese companies if they don't use a US-approved packaging firm.

TSMC has recently been fined for selling $500M of AI chips to Huawei through a Chinese shell company Sophgo (affiliated with Bitmain), though this was before the packaging firm requirements.

This question resolves Yes if the US requires TSMC to get an export license (with no presumption of approval) for all advanced AI chip sales to China, or imposes a similar level of export controls, before the end of 2025.