Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on August 31, 2025, NVIDIA is legally prohibited from exporting its H20 chips to China. If no such prohibition is in place, or if any licenses for export to China are in effect on the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

In April 2025, the U.S. government imposed export restrictions requiring NVIDIA to obtain licenses to sell its H20 AI chips to China, leading to a temporary halt in sales and a reported $5.5 billion charge for unsold inventory. (cnbc.com) However, in July 2025, NVIDIA announced it had received U.S. government approval to resume H20 chip sales to China, with plans to begin deliveries soon. (apnews.com) CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the importance of the Chinese market, noting that half of the world's AI researchers are based there. (apnews.com)

Considerations

The U.S. government's stance on technology exports to China has been subject to change, influenced by evolving trade policies and national security concerns. While NVIDIA has secured approval to resume H20 chip sales as of July 2025, future policy shifts could impact this approval. Traders should monitor official announcements from the U.S. government and reputable news sources for any updates regarding export restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chips to China.