Manifold is currently still accessible in China. But with the number of China controversial markets like these, will it be blocked in China soon?
https://manifold.markets/Xiklon/is-xi-jinping-mentally-retarded
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s
https://manifold.markets/DismalScientist/will-china-be-a-democracy-in-2050
Resolves to Yes if Manifold is inaccessible in China without VPN
Use this website to check if manifold is blocked in China
https://www.comparitech.com/privacy-security-tools/blockedinchina/
If this website is proved to be inaccurate, I will look for more accurate testing of whether Manifold is inaccessible in China without VPN.
Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative resolution path: If a user in China attempts to login to Manifold without a VPN on three different days in December and all three attempts fail, the market will resolve YES (unless another user in China demonstrates they can access it).
Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Throttling counts as blocking: If Manifold is so slow that for someone with high speed internet, it takes more than 30 seconds to load each page due to throttling, this will count as "blocked" for resolution purposes.
Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Throttling does not count as blocking: As long as Manifold can be accessed to some degree in China (even if throttled and taking a minute to load each page), it does not count as blocking for resolution purposes.
This supersedes the previous update stating that throttling taking more than 30 seconds to load would count as "blocked".
Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regional blocking criteria: The market will resolve YES if Manifold is blocked in any major region of China (e.g., blocking in Qingdao or Shanghai alone is sufficient for YES resolution).
Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Alternative evidence method: The website testing tool (comparitech.com) working is not a necessary condition for resolution. If someone physically in China can use Manifold without VPN and provides evidence, that is sufficient to show the site is not blocked.
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@jollyroger182 Pretty sure that site is just buggy. These two other sites can access it, and one shows the web preview. But just to be sure, I can ask some relatives to test it.
@spiderduckpig FWIW I'm in China right now. It appears that the website does load without a VPN, although it takes about a minute to display the markets, bets, etc on first load. In addition, AFAIK the only sign-in method is Google which is not accessible without a VPN either. So I'd argue that without a VPN, Manifold is inaccessible.
@jollyroger182 This is sufficient evidence for me. If you would do three attempts to login to Manifold without a VPN in China on three different days in December, and none of those attempts works, this market would resolve to YES (Unless another user in China demonstrate that they are able to access it).
(Not that you need to be the one testing this, I'm just laying out the criteria for the market to resolve YES in case you're intersted to be the tester)
@AmmonLam Yeah, dotcom-tools show about a minute to load 5MB in Shenzen: https://www.dotcom-tools.com/china-firewall-test?type=report-details&id=5d18e2788a9848b2b3c9337623c146c0&monitor=448. Chengdu and Shanghai fail altogether: https://www.dotcom-tools.com/china-firewall-test?type=summary-report&id=5d18e2788a9848b2b3c9337623c146c0
I think heavy throttling should be counted as blocking.
I'd guess the website is the market description shows Manifold is blocked because it hits the timeout.
@SqrtMinusOne If Manifold is so slow that for someone with a high speed internet, it takes more than 30 seconds to load each page, and it's a result of throttling (not that I understand the details of how throttling was done in China), I would say that counts as "blocked".
@jollyroger182 @AmmonLam Imo this deserves at least a partial resolution then, because throttling is not mentioned at all in the description, just blocking (which it isn't)
@Quroe Fair. I'm updating the resolution criteria to, as long as Manifold can be accessed in some degree in China, it doesn't count as blocking. Even if there's throttling and even if it takes a minute to load each page.
@AmmonLam As far as I'm aware, it's common that different regions have different policies for "grey zone" sites. Some may block, some may throttle.
Maybe, say, resolve YES if 3/6 or 4/6 dotcom-tools locations report that Manifold is blocked?
@SqrtMinusOne As of now:
Beijing: throttled
Chengdu: throttled
Shenzhen: blocked (or at least it times out)
Qingdao: blocked
Guangzhou: throttled
Shanghai: blocked
@SqrtMinusOne hmmm this different status in different region makes things complicated. I'm leaning towards resolving YES if it is blocked in any big region (e.g., blocked in Qingdao or Shanghai is sufficient for the market to resolve YES)
@ZandaZhu The site working on the link provided is not a necessary condition. If someone physically in China are able to use the site without VPN and provide evidence for that, that's sufficient evidence that the site is not blocked.
@AmmonLam thanks! Does it resolve YES if it is blocked in a main city but not all places in china?