Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?
22
100Ṁ1500
Dec 31
25%
chance

In recent years, US has implemented sanctions regime against China that tries to prevent access to the most cutting edge GPUs required for AI training runs. China is trying to develop its own domestic alternatives. Will they succeed?

Resolves YES if there is official, verifiable announcement from any Chinese company that they developed GPU of similar capability like H100 by 31.12.2025.

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nvidias-ai-chips-sales-in-china-hampered-by-us-sanctions-but-gaming-gpu-shipments-increase

  • Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator has indicated they will resolve YES based on the Huawei announcement (combining two 910B processors to achieve H100-comparable performance), unless there are objections from traders.

  • Update 2025-12-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is reconsidering the previous indication to resolve YES based on the Huawei announcement. Upon further review, the creator now believes available Chinese GPUs may not be considered comparable to H100 performance. The creator is open to being convinced otherwise but is currently leaning toward NO based on recent analysis.

Technology
AI
China
Semiconductors
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Huawei gpus will exceed nvidia gpus in at least 3 benchmark tests by Q1 2026
10% chance
What will NVIDIA's GPU market share range be by end of 2025?
Will Intel discrete GPUs have a marketshare greater than 8% by January 2026
10% chance
By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
53% chance
Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
26% chance
Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?
24% chance
NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?
46% chance
If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?
If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?
Will Nvidia be permitted to sell its Blackwell chips (B30A, B300, etc.) directly to China, before May 2026?
37% chance
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 YES

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/huawei-readies-new-ai-chip-mass-shipment-china-seeks-nvidia-alternatives-sources-2025-04-21/

"It achieves performance comparable to Nvidia's H100 chip by combining two 910B processors into a single package through advanced integration techniques, they said."

I think this resolves yes.

@CM Seems so. I will resolve it as yes if no one disagrees. cc: @traders

@CM On a second look the article you shared is relatively old and as of now (December, 24 2025) I am not sure if the Chinese GPUs that are available can be considered as comparable. When I asked Gemini, the answer was decidedly no. I am opened to be convinced otherwise.

Also this analysis is relatively recent (December 15, 2025) and it firmly points to NO camp: https://www.cfr.org/article/chinas-ai-chip-deficit-why-huawei-cant-catch-nvidia-and-us-export-controls-should-remain

https://gemini.google.com/share/eb070f68b6d1

‎Gemini - direct access to Google AI
Created with Gemini

@JankoPrester I traded based on it being announced by a Chinese company. Not if it actually is comparable. Will read more later.

Sorry the end date should be 31.12.2025

People are also trading

Huawei gpus will exceed nvidia gpus in at least 3 benchmark tests by Q1 2026
10% chance
What will NVIDIA's GPU market share range be by end of 2025?
Will Intel discrete GPUs have a marketshare greater than 8% by January 2026
10% chance
By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
53% chance
Conditional on no Doom by 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
26% chance
Will Nvidia resume selling its top GPUs to China by April 1, 2027?
24% chance
NVIDIA allowed to sell B30A to China by 2027?
46% chance
If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?
If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 5 years later?
Will Nvidia be permitted to sell its Blackwell chips (B30A, B300, etc.) directly to China, before May 2026?
37% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy