
Resolves YES if Nvidia (NVDA) closes over $400 on December 31, 2025 according to Yahoo Finance or Google Finance (if Yahoo Finance is unavailable).
People are also trading
OK, so that was really stupid on my part to do that and I feel pretty sick, but if people want to do me a favor and close it out, I'm willing to accept 65% on the YES side if people want to take the profits now that I realize it's actually $40? I put up 30k there to start.
(I'm not going to ask manifold to break trades or anything, I accept that I did that)
For reference, the person who opened the market has explicitly said it's based on pre-split value:
https://manifold.markets/stuhlmueller/will-nvidia-close-over-400-at-the-e#MQ7liM2JexBgYrGskGsm
Ambiguity kinda sucks but also it would suck on the flip side to have your prediction invalidated by a stock split so
Y'all realize this is over resolving at over $40 given this factors splits?