Trump's approval rating on the day he left office was 38.0%. This market will resolve YES to all options on or after the date that his approval rating dips below this number. If it does not go below this number before he leaves office (at any time, for any reason), all other options will resolve NO.
This will resolve based on the Silver Bulletin tracker. If it stops functioning or is otherwise deemed unreliable/invalid by the market creator, another website's approval rating tracker will be substituted. See the comments for more details.
I will wait a few days after a date passes to verify the Silver Bulletin approval rating for that date includes all relevant polls.
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@AIBear Going to wait a couple more days to resolve since the average can change retroactively as new polls are released (i.e. if a poll that was conducted july 1-4 is released on july 10 it will count towards the july 4 average), but that does look to be the lowest so far.
@HenryR So the date on the tracker beats calendar date? Makes sense, but maybe worth a clarification?
Resolved June 1st as NO and added two additional options (1 year after Trump's election & the 2026 midterm date)!
@traders Moving forwards, this market will now resolve based on the Silver Bulletin's Trump Approval Rating Tracker here, as it is the closest to a continuation of the FiveThirtyEight tracker that still exists. If that tracker goes offline or the number becomes restricted behind a paywall, I may move the resolution to RealClearPolling's tracker instead. I would prefer to avoid that however, as RCP's tracker is significantly less robust and the website has a history of ideological bias.
Resolved first two. Tracker is now live here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/