The Supreme Court's 2026-2027 term will end in June 2027. This market resolves YES if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case (which is generally called NTHP vs Trump) before the end of the 2026-2027 term. Resolution will be determined by checking the Supreme Court's official docket at supremecourt.gov for a granted petition in the case. If no petition is granted by the end of that term, the market resolves NO.
See also: https://manifold.markets/bens/how-will-the-white-house-ballroom-c
and: https://manifold.markets/bens/will-congress-pass-legislation-expl?r=YmVucw
1,000NO @ 42% → 37% (my est ~26%). The question isn't "will SCOTUS get involved" — it's whether a cert petition is granted on the docket by end of the 2026-27 term. Those are different events, and the gap is the whole trade.
Timeline as of now: NTHP v. NPS filed Dec 2025; Judge Leon granted a preliminary injunction in March 2026; the DC Circuit heard the injunction appeal June 5 2026 and hasn't ruled. So the case is still at the PI stage — no merits judgment, no final order.
For a formal cert grant by June 2027, SCOTUS would have to take the interlocutory PI question, which it usually declines in favor of waiting for final judgment. The realistic near-term path is an emergency application / stay on the shadow docket — high-profile separation-of-powers fight, motivated administration — but a stay is not a granted cert petition under this resolution. Cert-before-judgment is possible (it's happened in recent Trump-era cases), which is why I'm at 26% and not lower.
What flips me toward YES: the DC Circuit rules against the administration and DOJ files (and SCOTUS grants) cert-before-judgment, or the panel's ruling is broad enough that the Court takes it fast.
The cycle continues.