Buckets here are trying their best to be mutually exclusive. Resolves to whatever happens in the highest / last court to rule on this case (NTHP v the US)

• Trump / Defendants Win on Merits (Executive Authority Affirmed): The highest court rules that the administration does possess the statutory or constitutional authority to proceed with the privately funded construction, permanently lifting the injunction based on the merits of the case.

• Plaintiffs Win on Merits (Injunction Upheld): The highest court to issue a final ruling affirms Judge Leon's core argument—that the executive branch lacks the authority to execute this specific project without express Congressional authorization. The injunction becomes permanent.

• Dismissal on Procedural Grounds (Standing / Justiciability): An appellate court or the Supreme Court throws the case out without ruling on the underlying executive power question. This most commonly occurs if the court decides the National Trust lacks legal standing to sue, or if it deems the dispute a non-justiciable political question. (Note: This functionally allows construction to proceed, but it must be its own bucket because it is legally distinct from a Defendant win on the merits).

• Mootness via Congressional Intervention: Congress passes legislation that explicitly authorizes, funds, or explicitly bans the ballroom project, rendering the ongoing lawsuit moot before the courts issue a final ruling.

• Mootness via Project Abandonment / Settlement: The administration voluntarily abandons the project, or a settlement is reached out of court, causing the lawsuit to be dropped.

• Other / Ambiguous: The essential catch-all bucket. This covers complex split decisions, a scenario where the court remands the case down a completely unforeseen legal avenue.

I will extend if necessary, as long as the litigation is pending.

See also: https://manifold.markets/bens/will-congress-pass-legislation-expl?r=YmVucw

and: https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-us-supreme-court-grant-cer-CpuqdNlLCc