Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if, at any point before June 16, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States Armed Forces carry out a kinetic military strike (such as airstrikes, missile launches, drone strikes, or naval bombardment) against targets located on Omani sovereign territory or within Omani territorial waters.

• This market resolves to NO if no such military action occurs by the cutoff time.

• Non-kinetic actions (e.g., cyber warfare, electronic interference), accidental military collisions, defensive interceptions of projectiles that do not target Omani territory, or the boarding and inspection of commercial vessels in international waters do not count as a "strike".

• Resolution will be determined based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense (defense.gov), U.S. Central Command (centcom.mil), or consensus reporting from major international news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or Agence France-Presse).

Background

On May 27, 2026, President Donald Trump issued a direct warning to Oman during a White House Cabinet meeting, stating that the U.S. would "blow them up" if they partnered with Iran to regulate transit or charge fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Control of the Strait—which contains shipping lanes running through Omani and Iranian territorial waters—is a central issue in negotiations to resolve the ongoing U.S.-Iran war. Oman has historically been a key diplomatic mediator and security partner for the United States, but reports of bilateral talks between Muscat and Tehran over shipping tolls have escalated tensions with Washington.