I will not bet in this market due to its subjective nature. This resolves based on my perspective at (or before) the end of 2025 (if there is ambiguity, I may/will consult with other Manifold superusers).

Clear things that would get this to resolve YES:

-Trump wins, Musk becomes clearly disillusioned by right wing politics and starts heavily criticizing Trump and aligning himself with more centrist or left-wing politics or figures.

-Harris wins, Musk pivots and aligns himself with her or endorses her as a president.

-Musk retracts his endorsement of Musk before the election happens.

-similar things in that vein

Things that would be inadequate for a YES resolution:

-Musk disagrees with Trump on election denialism but still aligns himself with the MAGA/Trump movement.

-Musk publicly admires some executive action or bill passed by Harris or the democratic party.

-Musk criticizes one of Trump's policies.

I would like to see some clear evidence of a political realignment for a YES resolution, even if that realignment is just from right-wing/MAGA/Trumpism to Musk's previous fairly centrist politics.

• Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the 'change' in political orientation refers specifically to a shift along the left/right political spectrum. A change solely in the intensity or extremity within the right-wing (e.g., from moderate right to extreme right) would not be sufficient for a YES resolution.

• Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A change in political orientation (as defined by existing criteria) by Elon Musk at any point up to the end of 2025 can lead to a YES resolution.

  • This is true even if he later reverts to a previous political orientation before the end of 2025.

  • The resolution is based on the occurrence of such a qualifying change event within the timeframe, not necessarily his orientation on December 31, 2025, if an earlier qualifying change (and potential reversion) took place.

• Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has stated that the market would resolve to YES if Elon Musk takes the following actions:

  • Forms a new political party that is broadly to the center of the Republican Party.

  • Actively campaigns against Republicans and/or Donald Trump as part of this new party.

• Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a market reaction, the creator has re-emphasized a key part of the original criteria: a qualifying political realignment must be a shift from his current right-wing alignment towards the center or left.

A change to a different type of right-wing politics or a move further to the right will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.