I will not bet in this market due to its subjective nature. This resolves based on my perspective at (or before) the end of 2025 (if there is ambiguity, I may/will consult with other Manifold superusers).
Clear things that would get this to resolve YES:
-Trump wins, Musk becomes clearly disillusioned by right wing politics and starts heavily criticizing Trump and aligning himself with more centrist or left-wing politics or figures.
-Harris wins, Musk pivots and aligns himself with her or endorses her as a president.
-Musk retracts his endorsement of Musk before the election happens.
-similar things in that vein
Things that would be inadequate for a YES resolution:
-Musk disagrees with Trump on election denialism but still aligns himself with the MAGA/Trump movement.
-Musk publicly admires some executive action or bill passed by Harris or the democratic party.
-Musk criticizes one of Trump's policies.
I would like to see some clear evidence of a political realignment for a YES resolution, even if that realignment is just from right-wing/MAGA/Trumpism to Musk's previous fairly centrist politics.
Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the 'change' in political orientation refers specifically to a shift along the left/right political spectrum. A change solely in the intensity or extremity within the right-wing (e.g., from moderate right to extreme right) would not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A change in political orientation (as defined by existing criteria) by Elon Musk at any point up to the end of 2025 can lead to a YES resolution.
This is true even if he later reverts to a previous political orientation before the end of 2025.
The resolution is based on the occurrence of such a qualifying change event within the timeframe, not necessarily his orientation on December 31, 2025, if an earlier qualifying change (and potential reversion) took place.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has stated that the market would resolve to YES if Elon Musk takes the following actions:
Forms a new political party that is broadly to the center of the Republican Party.
Actively campaigns against Republicans and/or Donald Trump as part of this new party.
Update 2025-07-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a market reaction, the creator has re-emphasized a key part of the original criteria: a qualifying political realignment must be a shift from his current right-wing alignment towards the center or left.
A change to a different type of right-wing politics or a move further to the right will not be sufficient for a YES resolution.
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@TimothyJohnson5c16 surely Elon was against tariffs and reducing immigration before market creation. How is that a change in political orientation? He always supported trump despite some policy disagreements, Elon is just more vocal now than during election season
(And where does Elon criticize trump’s tax cuts? Elon being a deficit hawk is not equivalent to that)
@Ziddletwix like maybe this is already YES for other reasons but the description is clear that simply criticizing trump on policies is not sufficient for YES. That would hold even if Elon’s stance had shifted a bit. But immigration and tariffs are not policies where Elon’s views have meaningfully shifted!
@Ziddletwix I think maybe some people are interpreting this as a left vs right orientation, and I'm interpreting it as a pro-Trump vs anti-Trump orientation.
It's true that Elon's preferred policy for tariffs hasn't changed significantly. But the fact that he's airing his disagreements in public is in itself a sign of a change in orientation.
Criticizing policies alone isn't enough - something more tangible than a tweet is still needed.
But I also think it's fairly certain that Elon will endorse a few candidates in the midterms who are explicitly running against Trump's policies. And that should count, even if those candidates style themselves as true conservative Republicans.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 The description is very explicit that it must be a shift to the left or right
Edit: admittedly that's an AI edit, and the actual comment it's based on is slightly less explicit. I really hate the AI edits
@SimonWestlake Yeah, I think moving to the left isn't the only way this could resolve YES, especially because with Trump it's become more difficult to say which positions even count as left or right.
@PhilosophyBear Doesn't Ben's clarification imply that creating a new right-wing party that's anti-Trump also counts as a YES?
@TimothyJohnson5c16 yes, but what if he*says* it's a centrist party, but in the view of many (but noyall) it's right-wing?
@bens Based on the description, Musk becoming more aligned with right-wing politics, such as founding a deficit hawk party and claming that it was MAGA who oriented away from him, would not be enough to resolve this Yes?
@Panfilo I mean, if he forms a new party that is broadly to the center of the Republican Party and campaigns against republicans/trump/etc… that would be sufficient for YES, I don’t want to be litigating whether his deficit hawks party is sufficiently centrist or not, tbh
@Panfilo that's odd to me, because the resolution criteria pretty clearly say:
"I would like to see some clear evidence of a political realignment for a YES resolution, even if that realignment is just from right-wing/MAGA/Trumpism to Musk's previous fairly centrist politics."
@traders Market title said "by the end of 2025", description said "at the end of 2025", but the description implied that it didn't really matter if he changes his political orientation and then changes it back, so I added "(or before)" to the market description to resolve this ambiguity. The intent was not his mental state on Dec 31st, but whether the event described here happens. That being said, I'm obviously gonna wait a week or two to let this play out.
@bens I'm glad I decided to let this play out, because it's starting to point more in the direction of "a 48 hour twitter argument" vs "changing parties"
@bens Yeah, seems like it so far, but I would be surprised if Elon is done complaining about the budget bill.