Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by September 30, 2026, Elon Musk publicly endorses any candidate participating in a Democratic primary election during that year. An endorsement is defined as a public statement of support for a specific candidate, made through any of Musk's official communication channels, including but not limited to his social media accounts, public speeches, or official press releases. The endorsement must be verifiable through reputable news sources or Musk's official communications. If no such endorsement is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has a history of political involvement that spans various affiliations. Initially, Musk supported Democratic candidates, endorsing Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, his political stance shifted over time. In 2022, Musk announced his intention to support Republican candidates, and by 2024, he became a significant donor to Donald Trump's presidential campaign, contributing over $250 million. This shift culminated in Musk's appointment to co-run a government organization known as the Department of Government Efficiency following Trump's 2024 victory. (en.wikipedia.org)

In 2025, Musk's political activities expanded internationally, including endorsements of far-right parties in Europe. Notably, he endorsed Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and Spain's Vox party, indicating a continued alignment with right-wing political movements. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

Given Musk's recent political trajectory, an endorsement of a Democratic primary candidate in 2026 would represent a significant departure from his current affiliations. Traders should monitor Musk's public statements and activities for any indications of a shift in his political endorsements. Additionally, the evolving political landscape and Musk's business interests may influence his future political engagements.