Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES for any answer if, before the market close date, Elon Musk makes public statements that clearly contradict the scientific consensus position described in that answer. Specifically:

• For "Climate change is real and caused by humans": The market will resolve YES if Musk explicitly states that climate change is not real, not happening, or not significantly caused by human activity.

• For "Vaccines are safe": The market will resolve YES if Musk explicitly states that vaccines in general are unsafe, harmful, or more dangerous than the diseases they prevent. Coming out against mRNA vaccines counts if and only if there's a clear scientific consensus that they are safe.

Statements must be explicitly made on Musk's verified social media accounts, in interviews with established media outlets, in public speeches, or through other verifiable channels. A retweet or implicit endorsement doesn't count

The market will resolve NO for answers where Musk does not contradict the consensus position.

I will N/A any answers which l do not consider to have strong consensus positions (e.g. COVID origin).

• Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Consensus Update:

  • Only the consensus among relevant academic experts is considered for resolving the market.

  • This standard will be used to determine whether Elon Musk's statements contradict the established consensus positions.

• Update 2025-03-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Seriousness in Ambiguous Cases

  • In instances where Elon Musk’s statements are ambiguous, they will be interpreted as serious if the overall tone and context lead most observers to take them at face value.

  • If uncertainty exists regarding whether a remark is a joke or a genuine statement, the benefit of the doubt will be given by treating it as a serious remark.