Will Elon Musk vote for the Republican party in 2028?
Will Elon Musk vote for the Republican party in 2028?
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This market will resolve to YES if Elon Musk states that he voted for the Republican nominee or otherwise indicates very strong support for his candidacy before the end of 2028. If Elon Musk does not do this, this market will resolve to NO.
Examples for clarity:
Elon tweeting "everyone should go vote for Vance" (assuming Vance is the republican candidate) would be enough evidence to resolve YES
Elon tweeting "Kamala Harris is the worse candidate" or "I refuse to vote for Kamala Harris" (assuming she is the dem candidate) or supporting something that the republican candidate says would not be enough to resolve YES, since they are not direct advocacy for voting for the republican candidate.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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