When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by drone?
14
139Ṁ4292125
24%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://twitter.com/ilaffey2/status/1759353732075294766
They're notable if there's a Wikipedia article about them.
If it happens in 2024, it'll resolve 1%; if it happens in 2025, it'll resolve 2%, etc.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Will another CEO be murdered in the US between August 10th 2025 and January 1st 2026 (non-inclusive)?
11% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?
22% chance
Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms?
23% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
75% chance
Will any prominent AI safety advocate be assassinated before EOY 2030
14% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
33% chance
Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030
28% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
17% chance
Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)
20% chance
People are also trading
Related questions
Will another CEO be murdered in the US between August 10th 2025 and January 1st 2026 (non-inclusive)?
11% chance
When will a notable American politician or corporate executive be assassinated by a cheap non state drone within the US?
22% chance
Will there be another assassination of a US politician before the 2026 midterms?
23% chance
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
75% chance
Will any prominent AI safety advocate be assassinated before EOY 2030
14% chance
Will there be a drone terror attack that kills at least 1 person in the United States before 2026?
33% chance
Will any prominent AI researcher be assassinated before EOY 2030
28% chance
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
16% chance
[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
17% chance
Major US politician assassinated in Trump's name (2028)
20% chance