Will Nate Silver win the third contest? Manifold will decide the answer. Manifold will decide the best funniest answer,
490
2025
66%
Bret Taylor / Yes
66%
Larry Summers / No
50%
Adam D'Angelo / Maybe
34%
Ali Ghodsi (Databricks CEO) / Meme
34%
Nat Friedman / Agency / .org / Maybe? / Politics, Nate Silver Dark Brandon Average Joe
34%
Alexandr Wang (Scale AI CEO) / Recursion
27%
Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) / Mystery / Mysterious / Might win but won't win, for now.
20%
Sam Altman / Not SBF / Probably good / definitely right / rich / sf / cool / gay / black / tenor / sax
5%
Barack Obama
3%
Claudine Gay

Note: If someone is officially sworn into a board position according to media reports and serves on the board for at least one Scaramucci (10 days), but is not on the board as of 2024-12-31, noon Pacific, I will resolve them at 50%.


Anyone on the board less than 10 days gets 0%, anyone on the board on 2024-12-31 (regardless of duration served) gets 100%.

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