Resolution criteria
Follows the identical Polymarket resolution (https://polymarket.com/event/hantavirus-pandemic-in-2026). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Background
Hantaviruses are a family of viruses spread mainly by rodents. In humans, they can cause Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) and Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS). While Hantaviruses can cause severe, life-threatening disease, transmission is typically through contact with infected rodent excreta, not via human-to-human transmission. Historically, human-to-human transmission of Hantavirus is extremely rare, making the potential for a global pandemic fundamentally different from respiratory viruses like influenza or SARS-CoV-2.
1,000People are also trading
This market will be used in countless arguments in favor of drastic action (after all, what’s a hundred billion dollars vs a 5% chance of doom?) - but in reality the two reasons it’s not below 1% are:
locking up all your manifold funds for a year isn’t worth the meager payout.
lots of people are buying Yes as an insurance of sorts, which drastically biases the market
So you can’t point to Polymarket or Manifold as a justification for anything.
@nsokolsky Should we make a market asking whether or not this market will be used in countless arguments in favor of drastic action? 🤔 Absolutely agree with your reasons why this isn't lower, though.
@nsokolsky I believe in EMH too much to believe that the accurate odds are <1%, despite basically all the current evidence suggesting it’s not a global risk. It’s currently at ~9% on polymarket, and even accounting for things like capital lock-up and wallet risk, I’m pretty confident that the price equilibrium would be much lower than 9% if that were the case. And I don’t think it’s just due to the downward pressure lagging behind either, given how it’s a high popularity high liquidity market that has been trading at ~10% for more than a day. I think even on the lowest estimates based on the current polymarket equilibrium it’s probably like ~4% that the market resolves YES. That being said, I’m not sure how much of the market percentage is actual global risk, and how much of it is just resolution technicality.
