Will there be another major pandemic before the end of 2030
20
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2031
27%
chance

Similar to covid will there be another major pandemic that causes masive social and economic disruption

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bought Ṁ30 of YES

According to different sources, it is highly likely that there will be another pandemic in that period.

  • In 2021, the British Government considered that the probability of another pandemic was very likely considering that "before 2030 as population growth and the loss of wildlife habitats are set to increase the risk of diseases jumping from animals to humans" (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/another-pandemic-2030-realistic-possibility-government-warns/)

  • "Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.Their results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks. Outbreaks will occur – it’s just a matter of when and where" (https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier).   

  • "It found the probability of a pandemic with similar impact to COVID-19 is about 2% in any year, meaning that someone born in the year 2000 would have about a 38% chance of experiencing one by now. And that probability is only growing, which the authors say highlights the need to adjust perceptions of pandemic risks and expectations for preparedness" (https://globalhealth.duke.edu/news/statistics-say-large-pandemics-are-more-likely-we-thought).

How would this resolve if there were to be another pandemic that disrupted things as bad as they were in 2020 but it was a descendant of COVID?

predicts NO

@Tetra Good question. Most people around the world probably think COVID is over… So COVID 2.0 and beyond count as “new”. What do you think?

@MauricioComi seems reasonable to me

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