Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown by the end of 2024?
48
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2025
34%
chance

Will resolve YES if the junta loses control of 2 of the 3 largest cities.

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Created a version of this for "before 2026":

/RemNi/will-myanmars-junta-be-overthrown-b-a4fbad9a7207

bought Ṁ10 of NO

According to this map (not sure what's the source behind), the opposition armed groups now control abut half of the country after the start of Operation 1027: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Myanmar_Civil_War_(2021-present)_after_Operation_1027.png

predicts YES

@adssx Certainly possible this will translate into loss of major cities, but well over 50% of the population is still governed by the Tatmadaw.

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