Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown by the end of 2024?
46
447
Ṁ5.9KṀ810
2025
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve YES if the junta loses control of 2 of the 3 largest cities.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
According to this map (not sure what's the source behind), the opposition armed groups now control abut half of the country after the start of Operation 1027: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Myanmar_Civil_War_(2021-present)_after_Operation_1027.png
@adssx Certainly possible this will translate into loss of major cities, but well over 50% of the population is still governed by the Tatmadaw.
Related questions
Will the Myanmar junta relinquish power before October 2024?
35% chance
Will there be a change in leadership in Myanmar before 2025?
43% chance
Will there be a successful coup in 2024 that overthrows the government of South Sudan?
24% chance
Will there be a successful coup in 2024 that overthrows the government of the Central African Republic?
21% chance
Will the government of the Central African Republic be overthrown before the end of 2024?
19% chance
Will there be a successful coup in 2024 that overthrows the government of the Congo?
17% chance
Will China intervene militarily in Myanmar before 2030?
31% chance
Will the president of Argentina (Javier Milei) be overthrown in 2024?
12% chance