https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021–present)

This market resolves YES if Myanmar's military junta (the State Administration Council/SAC led by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing) is overthrown or ceases to hold effective control of the country before January 1, 2030. Overthrow includes scenarios where the junta is forced from power through military defeat, internal collapse, or negotiated transition. The junta must lose control of the capital (Naypyidaw) and be unable to exercise governmental authority over any of Myanmar's major population centers. Resolution will be determined by credible international news sources and statements from the National Unity Government or successor authorities. This market resolves NO if the junta remains in power through January 1, 2030.