At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?
Basic
7
Ṁ146
2100
30%
State Administration Council or successor military junta
23%
National Unity Government in exile (Aung San Suu Kyi)
5%
A majority democratic coalition of ethnic armed groups
18%
A majority nondemocrtic coalition of ethnic armed groups
5%
China
19%
Other

The population of Myanmar are the people living in the pre-war borders of Myanmar.

I will use my best judgement to determine how this resolves if the coalitions I specified merged in weird ways. For example, is a group of EAGs join the State Administration Council and their combined territories are governed together with meaningful but not total SAC control, I'll call that a successor junta. If these two groups ally but the SAC has no ability to enforce laws in the EAC territory then I'll consider that an EAC coalition.

Majority democratic/no democratic is determined by fraction of people within the coalition who can participate in elections about as free as the last pre-war election.

I'll determine that the war has ended if there is a treaty resolution to the war between >70% of combatants by estimated headcount, if there is an effective ceasefire between such a group for longer than a year, if one group is widely considered to have won the war in international press, or if the war is widely considered over in the international press. If e.g. a coalition of EAG destroys the SAC and declared victory, but within 1 month starts another civil war between it's constituents, that will be considered the same war.

This is a complicated one to resolve, feel free to ask for clarifications.

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