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Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by December 31, 2026?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ41
Dec 31
20%
chance
7

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, Myanmar's military junta has conducted confirmed airstrikes targeting rare earth mining infrastructure in Kachin State.

YES if by December 31, 2026:

  • Credible reporting confirms junta aerial bombardment of RE mining sites, processing facilities, or RE-specific transport infrastructure in Chipwi/Pangwa/Momeik

NO if:

  • No confirmed airstrikes on RE mining sites by December 31, 2026

  • Airstrikes occurred near but not targeting mining operations

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. The Irrawaddy (irrawaddy.com)

  2. Kachin News (kachinnews.com)

  3. Myanmar Now (myanmar-now.org)

  4. Stimson Center monitoring

  5. Satellite imagery

Market context
Myanmar (Burma)
Myanmar
Regime Change
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