MANIFOLD
Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by December 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ7
Dec 31
17%
chance

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, Myanmar's military junta has conducted confirmed airstrikes targeting rare earth mining infrastructure in Kachin State.

YES if by December 31, 2026:

  • Credible reporting confirms junta aerial bombardment of RE mining sites, processing facilities, or RE-specific transport infrastructure in Chipwi/Pangwa/Momeik

NO if:

  • No confirmed airstrikes on RE mining sites by December 31, 2026

  • Airstrikes occurred near but not targeting mining operations

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. The Irrawaddy (irrawaddy.com)

  2. Kachin News (kachinnews.com)

  3. Myanmar Now (myanmar-now.org)

  4. Stimson Center monitoring

  5. Satellite imagery

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by September 30, 2026?
12% chance
Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by December 31, 2027?
14% chance
Will the Myanmar junta have conducted airstrikes on Kachin rare earth mining sites by June 30, 2027?
12% chance
Will Myanmar's junta still be in control of Myanmar through 2026?
94% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2027?
5% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2028?
31% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2029?
25% chance
Will KIA-led forces have captured Myitkyina by December 31, 2030?
38% chance
Will Myanmar's military junta lose power before 2030?
25% chance
Will internal armed conflict in Myanmar end before 2030?
74% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy