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MANIFOLD
Will Myanmar's junta be overthrown before 2026?
24
Ṁ1kṀ14k
resolved Feb 28
Resolved
NO

Resolves as YES if the Myanmar junta is effectively otherthrown before January 1st 2026.

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@mods MC's acccount is deleted. The Myanmar government was still in power as of Jan. 1st 2026, and this should resolve NO.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjrjpdz33vxo

MercurialGuesser boughtṀ30NO

Does loss of territory count?

Does agreement to transition to a civilian govt count?

@24a Based on my current understanding of Myanmar's geography, the junta has to lose control of the population centers in the middle of the country for this to count.

An "agreement" to transition to a civilian govt does not count. The junta has to lose a significant chunk of its real power. If they still have a holdout in a couple of cities, but have lost the ability to project power in most of the country, then this question resolves as YES.

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