Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the total number of the following three individuals who are elected to the United States Congress (either the House of Representatives or the Senate) in the November 2026 midterm elections:

• Max Miller (running for U.S. House, Ohio's 7th congressional district)

• Cory Mills (running for U.S. House, Florida's 7th congressional district)

• Ken Paxton (running for U.S. Senate, Texas)

  The market will resolve based on the official certified election results published by the respective state election authorities (the Ohio Secretary of State, the Florida Division of Elections, and the Texas Secretary of State), or a consensus of credible media sources.

• If an individual loses their primary, does not appear on the general election ballot, drops out, is disqualified, dies, or loses the general election, they will not count toward the total.

• In the event of an active recount or legal challenge, resolution will be paused until a certified winner is officially declared or recognized by the state authority.

As resolution is unlikely to be ambiguous, I may trade in this market.

Background

All three candidates are scandal-plagued Republicans running for federal office in the 2026 cycle but running in seats where Republicans should likely be the favourites on paper. As of market creation, Miller and Paxton have won their primaries but face difficult general election fights; Mills faces both a primary challenge and a potentially competitive general election.