Resolution criteria
This market resolves based on the official outcome of the November 3, 2026, United States Senate election in Texas and the subsequent public actions and statements of Republican nominee Ken Paxton.
Precondition: If Ken Paxton wins the election, or if the general election does not take place, this market will resolve N/A.
If Ken Paxton loses the election according to the final certified tally by the Texas Secretary of State:
YES: Ken Paxton publicly concedes the race (via an official speech, verified campaign release, or public statement on his official social media accounts) OR explicitly acknowledges his opponent's victory without filing a formal legal election contest challenging the certified outcome prior to the statutory certification deadline.
NO: Ken Paxton publicly refuses to concede, publicly asserts that the official outcome is illegitimate or stolen, or files an official legal contest or lawsuit seeking to overturn or block certification of the election results that is not withdrawn or dismissed by the time the winning candidate is seated.
If Paxton initially challenges the results but at later date concedes the race that will still be counted as him not accepting the results and resolve NO.
Resolution will be verified via primary public statements from the Paxton campaign, filings with the Texas Secretary of State, and reporting from major news agencies such as the Associated Press and The Texas Tribune.
1,000@Jack1 I’ll try to update the question to make that more clear but I would say any legal challenge filed or statements claiming it was rigged would be considered him not accepting the results.