Resolution criteria

This market covers global infectious disease events occurring between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039. Each option resolves independently based on official declarations and data from health authorities such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME):

• Yes, a pandemic with comparable global impact in the 2030s: Resolves YES if a pathogen outbreak in the 2030s is officially recognized as a pandemic or Pandemic Emergency and causes sustained global socioeconomic and health impacts comparable to COVID-19 (e.g., millions of excess deaths globally, prolonged international border controls, or multi-trillion-dollar economic disruption).

• No, no pandemic with comparable global impact in the 2030s: Resolves YES if no infectious disease outbreak between 2030 and 2039 reaches a level of global mortality, health system strain, or economic disruption comparable to COVID-19.

• A pandemic occurs, but its impact is significantly less than COVID-19: Resolves YES if an infectious disease spreads across multiple WHO regions leading to a recognized pandemic or global health emergency during the 2030s, but global excess mortality and societal disruption remain significantly lower than COVID-19.

• A major global health emergency is declared, but it is contained quickly: Resolves YES if the WHO formally declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) or Pandemic Emergency for an outbreak originating in or extending into the 2030s, but transmission and emergency status are successfully contained within a brief timeframe (e.g., under 6–12 months).

The creator may clarify specific metric thresholds prior to resolution if consensus data sources vary.

Background

Under the International Health Regulations (IHR) and the WHO Pandemic Agreement, the World Health Organization evaluates global infectious disease threats and can formally declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) or a Pandemic Emergency. Prior declared PHEICs include H1N1 influenza (2009), Ebola outbreaks (2014, 2018), Zika virus (2016), COVID-19 (2020–2023), and mpox outbreaks (2022, 2024). Global health organizations track emerging threats under frameworks such as "Disease X" to prepare for high-consequence spillover events or respiratory pathogens with pandemic potential.