Will Team A be more influential in the debate on the fate of Kyiv than Team Z?
4
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Ṁ100
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
N/A
OK here's my mischievous attempt to encourage people to share good models. == The debate question == Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, would Russian troops enter Kyiv? https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/conditional-on-ukraine-being-invade Let's have a debate in the comments to this question you're reading right now. You're in Team A if the first letter of your username is in the range A..K or a..k. Otherwise, you're in Team Z. If you're in Team A, you argue for the positive resolution of the debate question ("Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, Russian troops WOULD enter Kyiv"). If you're in Team Z, you argue for the negative resolution ("Conditional on Ukraine being invaded, Russian troops WOULD NOT enter Kyiv"). Please use the comment question below to write arguments in favor of the position of your team. Any user can award someone a delta vote ∆ if their comment caused the voter to change their mind about the debate question. For example, if Tom Shlomi wrote a juicy comment arguing that there'd be no troops in Kyiv and it caused you to update downwards, you write a comment saying "∆ for Tom Shlomi". Voting rules: - You can only award up to 4 ∆s in total and only 1 ∆ to any 1 debater. - You can batch ∆s to give several in one comment if that's more convenient. - To protect against voting with alt accounts, if you're giving out ∆s please have at least one question on any topic created in your Manifold Markets profile (you can use metaforecast.org to check for duplicates). == Resolution criterion == This question resolves YES if Team A got more ∆s than Team Z in total, NO if Team Z got more ∆s, and N/A if teams have equal ∆ counts. Resolution happens right after the end of March 2022 or when the debate question about troops in Kyiv resolves, whichever is earlier.
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bought Ṁ40 of YES
I give a Δ to Alex, because he argued for the side in which invested M$140. And I also give a Δ to myself, because I don't see a rule that says I can't.
bought Ṁ100 of YES
(My username was AYev when I posted this, so I'm arguing for YES) I believe that conditional on Ukraine being invaded, Russian troops WOULD enter Kyiv, because they have. I rest my case.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
In an article by Michael Kofman https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-02-21/russias-shock-and-awe he seemingly places a much greater likelihood of seizing Kyiv than he did before: "It would roll across large parts of Ukraine, not just the east, and try to seize the capital with the goal of installing a pro-Russian government." This is probably partially due to a larger number of Russian forces than they had massed in January and due to the presence of Rosgvardia troops which could be used to hold territories.

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